Another big performance from Nick Daicos sees the Collingwood superstar extend his lead after Round 17, but the two others on the podium remain at big prices.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 17

Best Bet

Nick Daicos

It’s short and we’ve seen this movie before back in 2023 when he got injured late and was overrun by Lachie Neale, but I just cannot see Nick Daicos getting beaten this time around.

His next two weeks are against North Melbourne, where he might get the O’Sullivan tag, followed by the Blues who he has an outstanding record against. After Carlton, the Magpies face the Crows, and we saw what Zak Butters did to them just a week ago.

Although there’s still seven rounds left and Collingwood has a somewhat difficult draw, if they win three games it will likely result in three three-voters, which has Daicos pushing 40 votes. Although this wasn’t enough in 2024, it will be in 2026.

Back Nick Daicos @ $1.75 with betr

Lay

Jordan Dawson

It’s now Nick Daicos vs the field, with every other player listed in double digits, but I can’t have Jordan Dawson fifth line of betting despite a strong outing on the weekend.

Our leaderboard doesn’t have Dawson inside our top-ten, currently on 16.54 votes after Round 17.

The Adelaide skipper has been outstanding, but a slow start to the season has him coming from a long way back. There are plenty of others we have ahead of him at a far better price, such as Newcombe and Cripps.

Back Jordan Dawson @ $16 with betr

Value Bet

Jason Horne-Francis

Sheezel is the obvious value at $67, but the Kangaroos have a difficult run, so I’m taking Jason Horne-Francis who is coming in hot.

Although Port Adelaide’s run isn’t much easier, they have been playing the better football between the two teams when up against quality opposition, and it’s off the back of Butters and Horne-Francis.

We now have Horne-Francis in tenth place on our leaderboard with 17.18 votes, potentially polling 11 votes across his last six games.

He has polled well in the past, including 16 votes in 2023 when he was projected less than eight.

Back Jason Horne-Francis @ $81 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Nick Daicos’ lead continues after another dominant performance, while right behind him sit two players priced in the $20s, plus an $81 chance moves into our top-five.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 16

Best Bet

Patrick Cripps

Purely due to room to improve price wise, I have to take Patrick Cripps once again. According to our leaderboard, Cripps is the only player within striking distance of Nick Daicos, just over three votes behind the star Magpie.

Carlton face Richmond this week before a tougher challenge in Round 18 against the Hawks. Assuming the Blues win their seventh game in a row, Cripps will again have a big chance of polling the maximum, with our numbers having him do so in six of his last seven games.

Although the market is slow on one of the greatest pollers in Brownlow history, there’s every chance he’s around $10 off the back of a best-on-ground performance against the Tigers.

Back Patrick Cripps @ $26 with betr

Lay

Luke Jackson

Having an unbelievable year, but the spread of votes in this Fremantle outfit could be Jackson’s downfall.

Ruckmen generally don’t poll too well, but Jackson did surprise last year with 17 votes so I’m not ruling that out. According to our leaderboard he’s a long way from Daicos in ninth place on 14.76 votes, for someone marked as a $10 equal-fourth favourite in the market.

We have five Fremantle players inside our top-35 with 8+ votes, so the sheer competition for votes at the Dockers will make this tough for Jackson.

Back Luke Jackson @ $10 with betr

Value Bet

Harry Sheezel

He’s been our value for three straight weeks now and he remains our clear-cut value after another best-on performance against the Bombers.

Sheezel has now moved inside the top-five on our leaderboard, leapfrogging the likes of Heeney ($8) and Smith ($10), and North Melbourne get yet another huge opportunity on the weekend against the Power.

After that he’ll face the Magpies, a matchup midfielders can get a hold of as well, so there’s the potential we continue to see more votes coming Sheezel’s way in the next fortnight. He probably has the closest profile to Daicos this season, minus the scoreboard impact.

Back Harry Sheezel @ $81 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

It was another Nick Daicos masterclass on the weekend, but a $34 chance has stormed into calculations and is at a price we simply cannot ignore after Round 15.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 15

Best Bet

Patrick Cripps

We’ve had Nick Daicos as our best bet the last few weeks, but at this price I have to shift to Patrick Cripps despite him being three votes behind the Magpie.

Cripps has a strong chance to poll three votes in Carlton’s win over the Giants, alongside Walsh and Hewett, but the Blues’ skipper’s polling history cannot be ignored.

We now have Cripps the front-runner to poll three votes in five of his last six games, with their win over Essendon the only blip. Carlton face the Eagles and Tigers the next fortnight, entering as favourites in both, and if Cripps maintains this level he should poll in both.

Back Patrick Cripps @ $34 with betr

Lay

Jordan Dawson

Was our lay at $13 last week, and although the Crows won I can’t see Dawson polling with just 18 disposals against the Demons.

Despite this, Dawson has shortened into $12 while Bontempelli has stayed at $5.50 even with a clear best on ground performance.

The Crows’ skipper has slid to 12th on our leaderboard after Round 15, and the $12 on offer certainly doesn’t align with what we’re seeing.

Back Jordan Dawson @ $12 with betr

Value Bet

Harry Sheezel

I don’t think Harry Sheezel will win the Brownlow but he remains the best value, and as predicted in our Round 14 article, Sheezel moved into the top-eight of our leaderboard off the back of a best on ground performance against the Tigers.

North Melbourne will now face the Bombers, giving Sheezel another huge opportunity for maximum votes.

Sheezel has polled above our expectations in the last two years, including polling 15 votes in 2024 despite the Kangaroos winning just three games.

Back Harry Sheezel @ $101 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

There wasn’t much movement up top after Round 14, but another contender has emerged in the top-eight of our leaderboard, albeit at a slightly short price.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 14

Best Bet

Nick Daicos

The next month is where Daicos goes from $4.50 into a $2 favourite.

The Pies face Port Adelaide, Richmond, the struggling Suns and North Melbourne over the next month, four winnable games for Collingwood, and if they are winning, Daicos is polling.

From 2023 to 2025, Daicos has polled in 80% of Collingwood’s wins, including polling three votes in 43%, averaging 1.84 votes per win. If the Pies do win three of the next four, history suggests that Daicos will be north of 26 votes with six rounds left.

Back Nick Daicos @ $4.50 with betr

Lay

Jordan Dawson

Has been the biggest mover in the competition from Round 9, polling approximately 12 votes in his last five games, but he has given the field a head start.

Dawson missed a handful of games with both injury and personal reasons, and as a result we had him on only 1.5 votes after Round 8.

The Crows’ superstar has now moved into eighth on our leaderboard, but due to recent performances he’s marked at $13, despite being $51 a week ago. Six votes behind the leading Daicos, I just think this price is too short despite Dawson currently being the form player of the competition.

Back Jordan Dawson @ $13 with betr

Value Bet

Harry Sheezel

Clear best on ground on the weekend, and I would be shocked if Harry Sheezel didn’t feature in the top-eight leaderboard after Round 15.

Sheezel sits just outside our list in ninth spot off the back of 33 disposals and a goal in North Melbourne’s win over West Coast, with 14.01 votes.

Ranked fourth in the competition for disposals this season, Sheezel will face Richmond in Round 15, with Essendon and Port Adelaide the next two weeks. His last two games against the Tigers were 39 disposals and a goal in Round 6 this year, and 54 disposals and two goals at the end of the 2025 season.

Back Harry Sheezel @ $101 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Another big game by Nick Daicos in Collingwood’s loss on Monday keeps the Magpie on top, but the leaderboard has tightened up once again after some big Round 13 performances.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 13

Best Bet

Nick Daicos

I know Collingwood has the bye, but Daicos is the clear standout this year in terms of his weekly output, and I’m surprised he’s still at this price.

Despite the Pies losing to Melbourne on King’s Birthday, Daicos still had 35 disposals and two goals, which likely gets him the two votes behind Pickett.

Collingwood have only won one of their last six games, but after the bye their draw opens right up. Port Adelaide, Richmond, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Carlton await. A Brownlow-defining five weeks for Daicos.

Back Nick Daicos @ $4.00 with betr

Lay

Christian Petracca

Gold Coast’s fixture is a complete nightmare for the remainder of the season, and the way they’re playing it’s hard to see them split their remaining games, especially in the next three weeks where they head to Geelong, host the Hawks and then head to Perth to take on the ladder-leading Dockers.

Petracca won’t poll in their loss to Brisbane, and has still played reasonably well of late, but with Rowell back in the mix it’s hard to see the former Demon being the primary poller in their wins going forward.

Between their fixture and the midfield mix, Petracca cannot win it from here.

Back Christian Petracca @ $15 with betr

Value Bet

Harley Reid

Obviously Cripps and Newcombe are both outstanding value at $41, but as they both have the bye in Round 14, I’ve opted to find Harley Reid again with the opportunity for him to be crunched in this time next week.

Reid is in 13th place on our leaderboard, but a big game against North Melbourne could see the former number one pick move into the top-eight. When the Eagles played the Kangaroos earlier in the year, Reid had 21 disposals and two goals in their win, in which we have him as favourite to be awarded the three votes in that game.

In his two seasons so far, Reid has polled close to 30% above projection, albeit with a small sample size, so if he continues to play at this level he won’t go unnoticed.

Back Harley Reid @ $151 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

A big Round 11 with the top of our leaderboard all amongst the votes, while a two-time Brownlow Medalist has made his move over the last three weeks.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 11

Best Bet

Nick Daicos

I see there are plenty of punters fading Nick Daicos’ Brownlow chances in favour of Bailey Smith and Bontempelli, but in Round 11 Daicos has a better chance of polling three votes than his two main competitors.

Daicos finished with 34 disposals and three goals, and while Darcy Cameron was outstanding for Collingwood, umpires will always favour the midfielder. Smith and Bontempelli both had big games, but they’re both more likely to end up with two votes due to huge performances by Max Holmes and Ed Richards.

A Brownlow swing game in Round 12 awaits against the Bulldogs, and in Daicos’ favour, there won’t be anyone doing a defensive job on him.

Back Nick Daicos @ $4 with betr

Lay

Zak Butters

I just don’t see a path where Butters wins the Brownlow despite being fourth line of betting.

The Port Adelaide star has been great all year, but the Power’s run home doesn’t look easy, with the reality being that they’ll likely only win two or three games the remainder of the year.

Butters has drifted to sixth on our leaderboard, and reality is he’ll struggle to stay inside the top-ten if the Power can only win three of their next 12.

Back Zak Butters @ $13 with betr

Value Bet

Patrick Cripps

Our value at $251 last week, still our value at $61 this week. I thought the Blues were a chance against the Power, but they did a number on them, with Cripps best on ground off 32 disposals and a goal.

According to our database, from 2019 to 2025 Cripps has exceeded his projected votes by 22%. In comparison, Nick Daicos is at just 6.5%. Even last year, Cripps polled 19 votes when projected just 12.

You can easily make a case that Cripps has four best-ons now, and although Carlton has Geelong this week, their next four games after that are Essendon, GWS, West Coast and Richmond.

Back Patrick Cripps @ $61 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Nick Daicos remains narrowly in front despite surviving back-to-back tagging jobs, while Bailey Smith and Marcus Bontempelli continue to apply pressure close behind.

There’s also a familiar name storming back into contention, with former Brownlow Medallist Patrick Cripps entering our leaderboard at triple-figure odds.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 10

Best Bet

We anticipated a rough fortnight for Nick Daicos with consecutive tagging jobs from Oisin Mullin and James Jordan, but he’s come through it still leading our leaderboard after Round 10.

The fixture ahead now looks extremely favourable.

Collingwood face West Coast this weekend before taking on the Bulldogs, who traditionally don’t employ a hard tag. After King’s Birthday against Melbourne, the Magpies head into the bye before a very manageable stretch against Port Adelaide, Richmond, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Carlton.

Importantly, several of those opponents are unlikely to send a dedicated stopper to Daicos.

It shapes as the perfect opportunity for him to create separation on the leaderboard over the next six weeks.

Back Nick Daicos @ $5 with betr

Lay

The concern with Marcus Bontempelli isn’t his ability to poll votes — it’s the Bulldogs’ ability to consistently win games.

Western Bulldogs look vulnerable at the moment and the upcoming fixture doesn’t get any easier.

They now face Melbourne, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Adelaide, St Kilda and Sydney across the next six rounds, with plenty of genuine 50-50 matchups in that stretch.

Based on current form, there’s a realistic scenario where the Bulldogs go 1-5 over that period, which would make it extremely difficult for Bontempelli to keep pace with the other leading contenders.

At the current market prices, there’s simply more value elsewhere.

Marcus Bontempelli @ $4 with betr

Value Bet

It sounds far-fetched given the scrutiny Patrick Cripps has faced this season, but there are genuine indicators suggesting he could make a late Brownlow charge.

Cripps currently ranks third in the AFL for contested possessions per game — historically one of the strongest indicators for Brownlow success.

He’s also one of the best natural pollers of the modern era.

Cripps has likely been best-on-ground in both Carlton wins this season, while there’s a strong case he also polled heavily last week against Brisbane after recording 32 disposals and a goal.

The biggest factor is Carlton’s upcoming draw.

Across the next six weeks, the Blues face five of the six lowest-ranked teams in the competition, alongside Geelong.

If the coaching change under Josh Fraser sparks a run of wins and Carlton goes 4-2 over that stretch, Cripps could rapidly shorten from his current triple-figure odds.

Back Patrick Cripps @ $251 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness when assessing player performances.

The traditional 3-2-1 voting method limits allocations to whole numbers, often forcing sharp distinctions between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.

Our weighted system instead allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on a game.

The model still maintains the standard six total votes per match, but introduces greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed.

Ultimately, this reduces arbitrary decision-making and creates a leaderboard that more accurately reflects how games are viewed by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli remain top of our leaderboard, but there are now several genuine challengers emerging behind them as the season reaches its midway point.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 9

Best Bet

I’m still leaning towards Christian Petracca despite the fact he’s unlikely to poll in Round 9 and currently sits sixth on our leaderboard.

The Suns now enter a really favourable stretch of games, facing Port Adelaide in Darwin before taking on North Melbourne in Round 11.

Gold Coast should enter both games as strong favourites, providing Petracca with a real opportunity to close the gap on the leaders.

Meanwhile, Nick Daicos faces a likely James Jordan tag against Sydney this week, while Marcus Bontempelli historically hasn’t produced huge performances against Carlton over the last four seasons.

At double-figure odds, Petracca still shapes as one of the strongest plays in the market.

Back Christian Petracca @ $10 with betr

Lay

This isn’t questioning Lachie Neale’s ability to poll votes, particularly after entering our top-eight for the first time this season.

The concern is Brisbane’s upcoming fixture.

The Lions now face Geelong, GWS at Engie Stadium, Fremantle and Gold Coast across the next month — arguably the toughest stretch of football any AFL team faces.

There’s also the growing presence of Hugh McCluggage as a direct polling competitor in this Brisbane midfield, with his centre bounce numbers steadily increasing.

I struggle to see Neale’s odds shortening dramatically from here.

Back Lachie Neale @ $17 with betr

Value Bet

Harry Sheezel continues to hover around the top-eight of our leaderboard despite still being priced as a major outsider.

There’s enormous boom-or-bust potential here.

The North Melbourne star has already given himself the opportunity to poll in eight of the first nine games this season, even if many of those are likely to be one or two-vote performances.

If he can continue banking minor votes consistently, he’ll remain firmly in the race deep into the season.

Historically, Sheezel has also polled roughly 10% above expectation, highlighted by collecting 15 Brownlow votes in 2024 despite North Melbourne winning only three games.

Back Harry Sheezel @ $51 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances.

The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.

By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach still maintains the standard six total votes per match, but introduces greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed.

Ultimately, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and produces a leaderboard that more accurately reflects how games are viewed by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Best Bet – Christian Petracca @ $8.00

Petracca sits fifth on our leaderboard but has a strong run coming up to close the gap.

Gold Coast head to Darwin for the next two weeks where they have a strong record, hosting St Kilda and Port Adelaide, before facing North Melbourne at Marvel.

With Matt Rowell in doubt and Noah Anderson yet to hit top gear, Petracca is set to take control over the next few rounds.

Meanwhile, Daicos faces Geelong with a likely tag, followed by Sydney where James Jordan could also go to him. The gap can close quickly.

Lay – Bailey Smith @ $10

Bailey Smith is within striking distance but faces a brutal run.

He was well held last week despite 26 disposals, lacking his usual influence.

Geelong now face Collingwood, Brisbane and Sydney. Even if they split those games, it makes consistent polling difficult.

That puts Smith under pressure at this price.

Value Bet – Shai Bolton @ $101

Jai Newcombe has already shortened from $51 to $19, but the next big mover could be Shai Bolton.

Now inside the top eight, Bolton has been enormous in his hybrid role for Fremantle.

He’s produced multiple 30+ disposal games with scoreboard impact, averaging a career-high 24.5 disposals this season.

His previous best season saw him average 21.7 disposals and poll 14 votes. He’s already operating above that level in 2026 and still flying under the radar.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances.

The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing clear distinctions between players whose performances may be nearly identical.

Our system allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of impact.

This maintains the total of six votes per game while reducing arbitrary decisions and improving prediction accuracy.

The result is a leaderboard that better reflects how games are actually perceived.

Best Bet

Zak Butters @ $13

Are Port Adelaide better than first thought? Looking at their next month, I’m keen to take Zak Butters at this price over Nick Daicos.

The Power face the Crows in the Showdown next week, with some real concerns around Adelaide, especially through the midfield. They then host a depleted Western Bulldogs side, travel to face the Suns, and return home to take on Carlton before the bye.

If Port win three of those four, Butters becomes a genuine contender heading into the bye rounds. The concern for Daicos is Collingwood’s upcoming stretch against Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney.

Lay

Marcus Bontempelli @ $6.00

An incredible performance by Bontempelli in the Bulldogs loss to the Swans, but it may only translate to one vote, maybe two at best.

With Aaron Naughton unlikely for Round 8 and the Bulldogs battling injuries, their depth will be tested. In these conditions, it’s hard to see Bontempelli polling enough votes in losses to stay competitive.

Value Bet

Jai Newcombe @ $51

He’s firmly in the mix now and still flying under the radar.

Newcombe has at least three best-on-ground performances locked in already. He had 31 and a goal against Sydney, 28 and a goal with 14 clearances against the Bulldogs, and followed it up with 30 disposals and 20 contested touches against Gold Coast.

He’s a proven poller, outperforming projections in each of the past three seasons. At this price, he’s impossible to ignore.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness. The traditional 3-2-1 method forces clear distinctions between players whose performances may be nearly identical. Our system allows decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, giving a more nuanced reflection of impact.

This approach still totals six votes per game but offers greater flexibility. It reduces arbitrary decisions and captures subtle differences more effectively, leading to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better reflects how games are judged.