Nick Daicos remains narrowly in front despite surviving back-to-back tagging jobs, while Bailey Smith and Marcus Bontempelli continue to apply pressure close behind.

There’s also a familiar name storming back into contention, with former Brownlow Medallist Patrick Cripps entering our leaderboard at triple-figure odds.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 10

Best Bet

We anticipated a rough fortnight for Nick Daicos with consecutive tagging jobs from Oisin Mullin and James Jordan, but he’s come through it still leading our leaderboard after Round 10.

The fixture ahead now looks extremely favourable.

Collingwood face West Coast this weekend before taking on the Bulldogs, who traditionally don’t employ a hard tag. After King’s Birthday against Melbourne, the Magpies head into the bye before a very manageable stretch against Port Adelaide, Richmond, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Carlton.

Importantly, several of those opponents are unlikely to send a dedicated stopper to Daicos.

It shapes as the perfect opportunity for him to create separation on the leaderboard over the next six weeks.

Back Nick Daicos @ $5 with betr

Lay

The concern with Marcus Bontempelli isn’t his ability to poll votes — it’s the Bulldogs’ ability to consistently win games.

Western Bulldogs look vulnerable at the moment and the upcoming fixture doesn’t get any easier.

They now face Melbourne, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Adelaide, St Kilda and Sydney across the next six rounds, with plenty of genuine 50-50 matchups in that stretch.

Based on current form, there’s a realistic scenario where the Bulldogs go 1-5 over that period, which would make it extremely difficult for Bontempelli to keep pace with the other leading contenders.

At the current market prices, there’s simply more value elsewhere.

Marcus Bontempelli @ $4 with betr

Value Bet

It sounds far-fetched given the scrutiny Patrick Cripps has faced this season, but there are genuine indicators suggesting he could make a late Brownlow charge.

Cripps currently ranks third in the AFL for contested possessions per game — historically one of the strongest indicators for Brownlow success.

He’s also one of the best natural pollers of the modern era.

Cripps has likely been best-on-ground in both Carlton wins this season, while there’s a strong case he also polled heavily last week against Brisbane after recording 32 disposals and a goal.

The biggest factor is Carlton’s upcoming draw.

Across the next six weeks, the Blues face five of the six lowest-ranked teams in the competition, alongside Geelong.

If the coaching change under Josh Fraser sparks a run of wins and Carlton goes 4-2 over that stretch, Cripps could rapidly shorten from his current triple-figure odds.

Back Patrick Cripps @ $251 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness when assessing player performances.

The traditional 3-2-1 voting method limits allocations to whole numbers, often forcing sharp distinctions between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.

Our weighted system instead allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on a game.

The model still maintains the standard six total votes per match, but introduces greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed.

Ultimately, this reduces arbitrary decision-making and creates a leaderboard that more accurately reflects how games are viewed by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli remain top of our leaderboard, but there are now several genuine challengers emerging behind them as the season reaches its midway point.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 9

Best Bet

I’m still leaning towards Christian Petracca despite the fact he’s unlikely to poll in Round 9 and currently sits sixth on our leaderboard.

The Suns now enter a really favourable stretch of games, facing Port Adelaide in Darwin before taking on North Melbourne in Round 11.

Gold Coast should enter both games as strong favourites, providing Petracca with a real opportunity to close the gap on the leaders.

Meanwhile, Nick Daicos faces a likely James Jordan tag against Sydney this week, while Marcus Bontempelli historically hasn’t produced huge performances against Carlton over the last four seasons.

At double-figure odds, Petracca still shapes as one of the strongest plays in the market.

Back Christian Petracca @ $10 with betr

Lay

This isn’t questioning Lachie Neale’s ability to poll votes, particularly after entering our top-eight for the first time this season.

The concern is Brisbane’s upcoming fixture.

The Lions now face Geelong, GWS at Engie Stadium, Fremantle and Gold Coast across the next month — arguably the toughest stretch of football any AFL team faces.

There’s also the growing presence of Hugh McCluggage as a direct polling competitor in this Brisbane midfield, with his centre bounce numbers steadily increasing.

I struggle to see Neale’s odds shortening dramatically from here.

Back Lachie Neale @ $17 with betr

Value Bet

Harry Sheezel continues to hover around the top-eight of our leaderboard despite still being priced as a major outsider.

There’s enormous boom-or-bust potential here.

The North Melbourne star has already given himself the opportunity to poll in eight of the first nine games this season, even if many of those are likely to be one or two-vote performances.

If he can continue banking minor votes consistently, he’ll remain firmly in the race deep into the season.

Historically, Sheezel has also polled roughly 10% above expectation, highlighted by collecting 15 Brownlow votes in 2024 despite North Melbourne winning only three games.

Back Harry Sheezel @ $51 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances.

The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.

By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach still maintains the standard six total votes per match, but introduces greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed.

Ultimately, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and produces a leaderboard that more accurately reflects how games are viewed by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Best Bet – Christian Petracca @ $8.00

Petracca sits fifth on our leaderboard but has a strong run coming up to close the gap.

Gold Coast head to Darwin for the next two weeks where they have a strong record, hosting St Kilda and Port Adelaide, before facing North Melbourne at Marvel.

With Matt Rowell in doubt and Noah Anderson yet to hit top gear, Petracca is set to take control over the next few rounds.

Meanwhile, Daicos faces Geelong with a likely tag, followed by Sydney where James Jordan could also go to him. The gap can close quickly.

Lay – Bailey Smith @ $10

Bailey Smith is within striking distance but faces a brutal run.

He was well held last week despite 26 disposals, lacking his usual influence.

Geelong now face Collingwood, Brisbane and Sydney. Even if they split those games, it makes consistent polling difficult.

That puts Smith under pressure at this price.

Value Bet – Shai Bolton @ $101

Jai Newcombe has already shortened from $51 to $19, but the next big mover could be Shai Bolton.

Now inside the top eight, Bolton has been enormous in his hybrid role for Fremantle.

He’s produced multiple 30+ disposal games with scoreboard impact, averaging a career-high 24.5 disposals this season.

His previous best season saw him average 21.7 disposals and poll 14 votes. He’s already operating above that level in 2026 and still flying under the radar.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances.

The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing clear distinctions between players whose performances may be nearly identical.

Our system allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of impact.

This maintains the total of six votes per game while reducing arbitrary decisions and improving prediction accuracy.

The result is a leaderboard that better reflects how games are actually perceived.

Best Bet

Zak Butters @ $13

Are Port Adelaide better than first thought? Looking at their next month, I’m keen to take Zak Butters at this price over Nick Daicos.

The Power face the Crows in the Showdown next week, with some real concerns around Adelaide, especially through the midfield. They then host a depleted Western Bulldogs side, travel to face the Suns, and return home to take on Carlton before the bye.

If Port win three of those four, Butters becomes a genuine contender heading into the bye rounds. The concern for Daicos is Collingwood’s upcoming stretch against Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney.

Lay

Marcus Bontempelli @ $6.00

An incredible performance by Bontempelli in the Bulldogs loss to the Swans, but it may only translate to one vote, maybe two at best.

With Aaron Naughton unlikely for Round 8 and the Bulldogs battling injuries, their depth will be tested. In these conditions, it’s hard to see Bontempelli polling enough votes in losses to stay competitive.

Value Bet

Jai Newcombe @ $51

He’s firmly in the mix now and still flying under the radar.

Newcombe has at least three best-on-ground performances locked in already. He had 31 and a goal against Sydney, 28 and a goal with 14 clearances against the Bulldogs, and followed it up with 30 disposals and 20 contested touches against Gold Coast.

He’s a proven poller, outperforming projections in each of the past three seasons. At this price, he’s impossible to ignore.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness. The traditional 3-2-1 method forces clear distinctions between players whose performances may be nearly identical. Our system allows decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, giving a more nuanced reflection of impact.

This approach still totals six votes per game but offers greater flexibility. It reduces arbitrary decisions and captures subtle differences more effectively, leading to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better reflects how games are judged.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 6

Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $3.00

It’s line-ball between Nick Daicos and Bailey Smith as our best bet, but I’m leaning to the Magpie for at least one more week.

Daicos looks an absolute certainty to secure three votes in Collingwood’s win over Carlton, and now gets Essendon on Anzac Day with the Magpies set to start hot favourites. If Collingwood win again, you’d expect Daicos to be right in the mix for another two or three votes.

What separates Daicos from the chasing pack is that there is no one else in this Collingwood side likely to consistently take votes off him across the season.

Lay

Marcus Bontempelli @ $5.00

I’ll go as far as saying Marcus Bontempelli won’t win the Brownlow this season.

The Bulldogs left Geelong battered, including Bont himself, but the bigger issue is that wins may not come as easily as anticipated a few weeks ago.

The next fortnight is tough with Sydney and Fremantle to come, and despite the Bulldogs sitting 4-2, we have Bont just sixth on our leaderboard while the bookmakers still have him as second favourite.

Value Bet

Clayton Oliver @ $151

Injuries have derailed GWS’ season, but could they make a run over the next month?

The Giants host North Melbourne in Canberra in Round 7, then face Gold Coast before taking on Essendon and West Coast.

If GWS can win three of those four, Clayton Oliver could quickly come into Brownlow calculations. He sits eighth on our leaderboard with 7.71 votes, ranks fourth in the AFL for disposals per game, and more importantly sits third for contested possessions per game.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Isaac Heeney @ $16

Heeney sits just outside our top eight, currently ranked 10th with 6.3 votes, and his historical polling numbers aren’t elite given much of his career has been spent forward.

Despite that, this price is too good to ignore. He has been Sydney’s best player to start the season and is one of the form players in the competition.

With Errol Gulden sidelined, Heeney’s midfield responsibility increases, giving him a strong chance to replicate his 2024 polling output. With a favourable draw ahead, Sydney should bank wins, creating opportunities to poll.

Lay

Marcus Bontempelli @ $2.75

We laid Bontempelli at $2.50 last week and are happy to go again at $2.75.

The market is tighter than the odds suggest, and the Bulldogs face a tough stretch against Geelong, Sydney and Fremantle.

Bontempelli is unlikely to poll last round, and if the Bulldogs struggle across this run, his price will drift. Expect him to be closer to $5 by Round 8.

Value Bet

Jai Newcombe @ $67

Newcombe continues to fly under the radar despite sitting fourth on our leaderboard.

He is a proven poller, with at least 17 votes in each of the past three seasons, and his numbers have lifted again in 2026.

Averaging a career-high 26.2 disposals, combined with consistent contested work, he profiles perfectly for Brownlow voting.

With Hawthorn expected to win games, Newcombe will continue to put himself in the frame at a very appealing price.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.

By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively.

Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better reflects how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $4.00

Remains on top of our leaderboard after Round 4 despite being a late withdrawal on the weekend. As a result, Daicos has drifted to $4, but is expected to return this week against Fremantle.

The Dockers don’t have a natural tagger for Daicos. Corey Wagner may spend some time on him, but if Daicos is fit he could produce a huge game, having recorded 43 disposals and a goal the last time these sides met.

Lay

Marcus Bontempelli @ $2.50

That is a very short price for Bont, and there’s a strong chance we’ll get better value at some stage this season.

The Bulldogs are 4-0, but they face a tough stretch against Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney and Fremantle. More importantly, there are plenty of teammates capable of taking votes off him.

He can absolutely win it, but $2.50 feels under the odds at this stage.

Value Bet

Luke Davies-Uniacke @ $101

There’s every chance LDU was best on in North Melbourne’s comeback win over Carlton, yet his price has drifted from $67 to $101.

Our data has Davies-Uniacke as one of the best pollers of the past six years, polling 40% above expectation since 2019.

North Melbourne now face Brisbane, Richmond and GWS. If they win a couple of those and LDU maintains this level, he’ll remain right up the top of our leaderboard.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.

By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively.

Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better reflects how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 3

Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $3.00

Once again, it was a Nick Daicos masterclass in a Collingwood win, and there’s no doubt he’ll poll three votes.

36 disposals and two goals should comfortably secure the maximum votes against the Giants, and I don’t think the $3 will last much longer.

Although Bontempelli has been dominant to start the season, the Bulldogs have several players capable of taking votes off him. Daicos doesn’t have that same issue at Collingwood, and if the Magpies continue winning he should remain the clear favourite for most of the season.

Lay

Zak Butters @ $26

I just can’t see Port Adelaide winning enough games this season for Butters to be a consistent poller.

Although the Power have a reasonably soft draw over the next fortnight with Richmond and St Kilda, they could easily drop both of those games. After that they face Hawthorn, Geelong, Adelaide, the Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast.

As it stands, Butters sits just outside our top Brownlow chances despite currently being listed among the favourites in the betting.

Value Bet

Luke Davies-Uniacke @ $67

North Melbourne have a good stretch coming up, and if they can string together a few wins, Luke Davies-Uniacke will be much shorter than the $67 currently available.

LDU has polled 42 votes over the last three seasons, which is impressive considering North Melbourne has won just 11 games in that period.

His contested ball numbers fit the Brownlow profile perfectly and he’s currently averaging a career-high disposal number. Definitely one to watch.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 2

Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $3.50

Daicos enters Round 3 fresh off the bye with an opportunity to poll when Collingwood face the Giants at Marvel Stadium on Friday night.

With Petracca set for an extended period on the sidelines with a hamstring injury, and the Bulldogs having the bye in Round 3, this gives Daicos a huge opportunity to leapfrog the two players currently ahead of him.

Lay

Christian Petracca @ $26

An incredible start to his career as a Sun, but Saturday was a major setback for the former Demon with a hamstring injury set to rule him out for 4–6 weeks.

Despite this, bookmakers still have Petracca as one of the favourites for this year’s Brownlow, but it simply won’t happen from here.

When Petracca returns, it will likely coincide with the return of Matt Rowell, which should see Petracca spend more time forward rather than the predominant midfield role he started the season with.

Value Bet

Jai Newcombe @ $41

It’s surprising to see Newcombe at this price given the likelihood of Hawthorn banking a lot of wins this season, along with his polling history and the extended absence of Will Day.

Newcombe has been a phenomenal poller across his short career. He finished top 10 in 2024 with 24 votes and top 20 last year with 17 votes, despite many projecting him to poll closer to 10.

His numbers were slightly down in 2025, averaging 22.9 disposals, but he’s started 2026 in strong form with 26 disposals per game across his first three matches. Although Hawthorn have a deep team, there aren’t many players who will consistently steal votes off Newcombe across the season.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 1

Best Bet

Nick Daicos @ $4.00

The umpires receiving post-game stats is a potential game changer for Nick Daicos. Despite Collingwood’s loss to Adelaide, Daicos clearly had the strongest numbers on paper and will likely feature prominently in the votes in most games he plays this season.

He has very little competition for votes at Collingwood. In games the Magpies win, Daicos is often the standout performer and regularly in the frame for three votes.

Although Petracca has started the season strongly, Gold Coast’s midfield depth — particularly with the return of Matt Rowell — creates far more internal competition for votes.

Lay

Zak Butters @ $19

It’s difficult to see Port Adelaide winning enough games for Zak Butters to be a genuine Brownlow contender this season.

Butters finished equal 11th last year in a team that won nine games. With Josh Carr stepping in as a first-year coach and Butters’ future continually making headlines, it’s hard to see the Power improving significantly on that win total in 2026.

He is also likely to attract more tagging attention this year. Despite sitting around the fifth line of betting, the path to the Brownlow looks extremely difficult for Butters.

Value Bet

Caleb Serong @ $26

Serong was unlucky not to poll maximum votes in Round 1 after a dominant performance against Geelong.

Fremantle’s next two fixtures present strong opportunities to collect votes. The Dockers host Melbourne in Round 2 before welcoming Richmond in Round 3 — both games they will be confident of winning.

Serong has finished inside the top ten in Brownlow voting in each of the past three seasons, making $26 an appealing price if Fremantle can string together a strong run of wins.

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness when assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical.

Our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (for example 2.5, 1.5 or 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

The system still allocates six total votes per match, but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. This reduces arbitrary decisions and better captures subtle differences in player performance.

The result is more accurate predictions and a leaderboard that better reflects how games are viewed by fans, analysts and the broader football community.