Our best bets for Brownlow Medal Night 2026 are Patrick Cripps Top 5 at $1.80 and Max Gawn Top 10 at $1.90, with value plays including Luke Jackson Top 20 at $2.20 and a Teams Multi at $8.81 combining Jackson, Oliver, Gawn and Petracca.

The Brownlow Medal count is almost here, and while Nick Daicos at $1.01 is as close to a lock as it gets, there’s genuine value to be found in the prop markets and exotics. Our AFL Brownlow Predictor has tracked every round of the count this season, and here are our best plays heading into tonight.

Best Bet

Patrick Cripps – Top 5 @ $1.80

Cripps would be close to the best poller we’ve ever seen, and the season Patrick Cripps produced went slightly under the radar.

In Carlton’s wins and draw, Cripps averaged 28.2 disposals per game, along with 8.2 clearances and 14.8 contested possessions. As a result, we have him polling in ten of those games, and potentially 11.

We have Cripps in second place on our leaderboard with 33.24 votes behind Daicos, so the top-five market appears a great bet at this price. The Blues’ skipper is also paying $19 without Daicos, $6.50 to finish top-three and $5.75 to poll 30+ votes.

Patrick Cripps Top 5 @ $1.80

Next Best

Max Gawn – Top 10 @ $1.90

Although most ruckmen don’t poll, Max does. Last year Gawn finished in ninth place despite the Dees winning just seven games, while Christian Petracca polled 16 votes as one of his competitors.

There’s now no Petracca, and Melbourne has won 15 games. Gawn produced a career-high season for disposals with 21.5 per game, while having his best goals output since 2022 and a career-high clearances per game at 6.6.

We have Gawn just outside the top-five with 24.66 votes, an improvement on his career-high 23 votes last year, which should be enough for a top-10 finish.

Max Gawn Top 10 @ $1.90

Value Bets

Luke Jackson – Top 20 @ $2.20

At Round 18, Luke Jackson was the sixth line of betting paying as short as $13 to win the Brownlow. Now we are getting plus money for the Dockers ruckman to finish top-20.

Jackson polled extremely well last year with 17 votes, and that was while more often than not splitting ruck duties. Now as the primary ruck, I think we’ll see the big man poll even stronger in 2026.

We have Jackson on 17.27 votes, which should be enough to have him inside the top-20 this year.

Luke Jackson Top 20 @ $2.20

Willem Duursma – To Poll a Vote @ $2.75

It’s Round 12, and the Eagles have just beaten the Bombers by five goals. Willem Duursma is the Rising Star favourite, and it’s off the back of this performance.

The number one pick had 25 disposals and a goal against Essendon, including five tackles, an equal team-high four clearances and strong impact throughout.

Although there’s a handful of players around the 25-disposal mark for the Eagles in this win, Duursma’s impact should see him in the votes.

Willem Duursma to Poll a Vote @ $2.75

Clayton Oliver – Top 20 @ $6.00

Contested possessions has been a core ingredient to Brownlow success historically, and Clayton Oliver won a heap of them this season, ranked first in the AFL with 14.9 per game.

Oliver produced similar numbers when at his peak at Melbourne, and although he underpolled badly in 2023, in 2021 and 2022 he polled 31 and 25 votes respectively.

The first half of Oliver’s season was really strong, and we’ve got him around 20th place at a very healthy price.

Clayton Oliver Top 20 @ $6.00

Christian Petracca – 15+ Votes @ $5.75

Another former Demon, and it appears everyone has forgotten how good Christian Petracca was at the start of the season, in conjunction with Gold Coast winning games.

After the bye, Petracca falls right away with the potential of polling minimal in Rounds 15 and 17, but before the bye we have Petracca pushing 15 votes by Round 11.

He is a proven poller. Petracca has polled 16+ votes in each of the last six seasons. The $17 for top-20 is also worth a small play.

Christian Petracca 15+ Votes @ $5.75

Sam Durham – Most Essendon Votes @ $6.00

Zach Merrett is the favourite for this market, but the Bomber played a different role in 2026 to what we’re used to, winning a lot of uncontested ball from the back-half.

Sam Durham had a big game in Round 13 against the Blues, in which the Bombers only lost by five points, finishing with 30 disposals and a goal, along with ten marks, 11 contested possessions and eight score involvements.

In Essendon’s Round 19 win, Durham will go head-to-head with Merrett for the maximum votes, having finished with 25 disposals and a team-high 13 contested possessions, six score involvements and seven clearances.

Sam Durham Most Essendon Votes @ $6.00

Teams Multi

Combining our four best value plays into one multi across the top Brownlow pollers from their respective clubs.

Jackson (Fre) / Oliver (GWS) / Gawn (Mel) / Petracca (GC) = $8.81

As of Round 24 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 41.75 projected votes, priced at $1.01 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 33.24 votes at $67, while Bailey Smith is our best bet at $51, with the Geelong Cat recording 30+ disposals in wins on 11 occasions this season, the exact same number as Daicos.

Nick Daicos has had 30+ disposals in 11 wins this season for Collingwood and enters Brownlow Night as the $1.01 favourite, but there’s another player who has achieved the exact same thing this season who is a serious Brownlow smoky.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 24

Best Bet

Bailey Smith

Although I’ve got Bailey Smith listed fourth on my leaderboard, I think he has the most upside from this leaderboard, and that I’ve potentially been harsh on the Cat.

We have Daicos potentially polling in 20 games this season, but Bailey Smith isn’t far off from that with the ability to poll in 18 games, the second highest of all players in the pool.

He will poll three votes in the last round with 40 disposals and three goals against the Tigers, with Smith now recording 30+ disposals in wins on 11 occasions this season, the exact same number as Daicos.

Back Bailey Smith @ $51 with betr

Lay

Marcus Bontempelli

The back-end of Ed Richards’ season will likely hurt Bontempelli, and although he should be in that top-five picture, I can see both Cripps and Smith finishing above him.

It was another outstanding performance by Bontempelli in the Western Bulldogs’ upset win over Melbourne, but he played shotgun to Ed Richards who will likely be taking the maximum votes once again.

Richards might be the reason Bont will once again miss out on a Brownlow. From Round 18 onwards, we have Bont polling 8.75 votes with Richards polling 11 votes over this stretch.

Back Marcus Bontempelli @ $41 with betr

Value Bet

Izak Rankine

I still think Max Gawn is great value per the Round 23 article and had another strong performance in Round 24, but Izak Rankine could be the form player of the competition right now.

We have Rankine polling 17.25 votes from the last eight rounds, moving into ninth on our leaderboard just behind his teammate Jordan Dawson, finishing the season on 23.28 votes.

Rankine only polled 15 votes last season but that was in line with what was projected. It will be interesting to see how he performs in his second season under the umpires’ nose in the middle.

Back Izak Rankine @ $251 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

As of Round 23 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 41.75 projected votes, priced at $1.01 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 32.95 votes at $67, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 28.17 votes at $41. Daicos is on track to threaten Patrick Cripps’ all-time vote record, but our best bet value play is Cripps at $67 and Max Gawn at $251.

Another big game from Nick Daicos who will once again feature in the votes. Is he on track to beat the Brownlow Medal vote record set by Patrick Cripps two years ago?

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 23

Best Bet

Patrick Cripps

The market has been unbackable for weeks now with Nick Daicos considered a certainty. Insane to think he was crunched in from $1.05 to $1.01 over the weekend.

But if we’ve got $10 to spend and your options are Nick Daicos at $1.01 and Patrick Cripps at $67, you’re taking the Blues skipper at a price.

Not saying he will do this again, but in 2024 Cripps upstaged Daicos in the highest polling count in Brownlow history. Cripps’ season is not quite at that level, but it’s comparable to his winning 2022 season. He will poll 30+ this season, and it probably won’t be enough, but if I’m having a small wager I’m happy to play in this space at these odds opposed to the $1.01 on offer for the Magpie.

Back Patrick Cripps @ $67 with betr

Lay

Marcus Bontempelli

Still the second favourite, and the longest second favourite in Brownlow history at $41.

I doubt we will see Bontempelli in Round 24 with a reported achilles issue, and as a result we could see the Bulldog drop down to third or fourth favourite by this time next week.

We already have the Bont in third place, and he could slide to fifth on our leaderboard after next round.

Back Marcus Bontempelli @ $41 with betr

Value Bet

Max Gawn

Ruckmen traditionally don’t poll, but that’s not the case for big Max.

Gawn polled 23 votes last year in a team that finished with seven wins. Petracca had 16 votes and Viney eight, so neither will be taking votes away in 2026. The Demons are expected to win 16 games this season, and Gawn is incredibly having a career year at 34 years of age.

Compared to last season, Gawn’s disposals are up at a career-high, his clearances are up at a career-high and his goal average is up. Although Pickett and Sparrow will be taking votes, I think we could see a big Brownlow Night from Max.

Back Max Gawn @ $251 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

As of Round 22 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 40.43 projected votes, priced at $1.05 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 30.85 votes at $67, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 28.17 votes at $23. The question is no longer whether Daicos wins, but whether he breaks Patrick Cripps’ all-time record.

Another Collingwood win, another three votes to Nick Daicos. We’re about to witness one of the most dominant Brownlow seasons in history. Who will feature on the podium with him?

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 22

Best Bet

Nick Daicos

Another three votes for Nick Daicos, and the question isn’t necessarily will he win, it’s whether he will break Patrick Cripps’ record.

Daicos will likely enter as the shortest favourite since 2017 when Dustin Martin entered Brownlow Night at $1.04 due to Patrick Dangerfield’s suspension. The Richmond legend finished 11 votes clear of the next eligible player, and I can easily see Daicos replicating this margin this year.

Back Nick Daicos @ $1.05 with betr

Lay

Marcus Bontempelli

Second favourite, but once again it won’t be Bont’s year. A quiet fortnight for the Bulldogs skipper has put a pen through his chances to compete with Daicos two rounds out, and I’ve even got concerns about Bontempelli staying on the Brownlow podium.

With Brownlow Without Daicos markets emerging, Bont will be the likely favourite in those and someone I’d be keen to lay at a short price.

Cripps is a proven poller and has once again produced a big season for Carlton, while Bailey Smith’s run home is extremely friendly with North Melbourne and Richmond to close the season.

Back Marcus Bontempelli @ $23 with betr

Value Bet

Chad Warner

Right now, our value plays aren’t necessarily finding someone that can actually beat Nick Daicos, because reality is no one can from here. We’re now looking for prop markets, and I think Chad Warner is a genuine top-ten shot when markets open.

Warner is a sensational poller, producing 20+ votes over the last two seasons, including 23 in 2024. His numbers are almost identical to 2024, if not better, with his disposals and goals nearly identical and a bump in inside-50s, contested possessions and clearances.

Last year Warner surprised everyone finishing equal-11th with 21 votes, despite the Swans winning just 12 games. With an 18-win season on the cards and not much Errol Gulden, will we see Warner back up there again?

Back Chad Warner @ $201 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

As of Round 21 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 37.26 projected votes, priced at $1.15 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 29.35 votes at $51, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 28.17 votes at $13. Our value play this week is Max Gawn at $251, with the Demons ruckman having a career season and a Brownlow profile that could see him make a late charge.

Although the Brownlow appears over with another big game from Nick Daicos, is there a surprise packet that’s gone under the Brownlow radar this season at $251?

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 21

Best Bet

Nick Daicos

Even copping the Oisin Mullin tag, Nick Daicos managed to record 35 disposals in Collingwood’s loss, and although it wasn’t near as effective as other 35-disposal games we’ve seen from the Magpie, it would surprise me if he didn’t poll.

Cripps and Bontempelli needed a three-vote performance in Round 21 to give this count a pulse, but neither player will poll playing two of their quieter games this season.

With West Coast coming up this weekend for Collingwood, expect the winner on Brownlow Night to be announced after Round 22.

Back Nick Daicos @ $1.15 with betr

Lay

Luke Jackson

When there’s a $1.15 favourite, it doesn’t give you too many lay options listed at a short price, but Luke Jackson is the equal-fifth favourite and it doesn’t add up.

Jackson has had an outstanding season and polled really well last year, but the spread of Dockers polling this season will make it close to impossible for Jackson to finish top-five. Based on our numbers, we don’t even have Jackson anywhere near the top-ten.

We have Jackson in 16th place on 15.77 votes, with five Fremantle players currently projected to poll 10 or more votes. I’d be looking to lay the ruckman when team markets are released in a few weeks if his outright market price is any indication.

Back Luke Jackson @ $51 with betr

Value Bet

Max Gawn

Go back to 2008. Matthew Richardson had the Crown Palladium up and about with the Tiger making a huge Brownlow run. Eighteen years later, could Max Gawn do something similar?

The 34-year-old is having a career season, averaging 21.5 disposals per game, and the ruckman bucks the trend when it comes to rucks polling. Gawn had 23 votes last year in a team that won just seven games.

The Dees have already won 13 this year, he doesn’t have to fight for votes with Oliver and Petracca, and he’s extraordinarily close to fitting the Brownlow profile. Gawn is ranked top-ten for contested possessions this season, which is historically the Brownlow formula, and has kicked 10+ goals which also correlates with Brownlow success. I think we could see a monster run by Gawn this year.

Back Max Gawn @ $251 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

As of Round 20 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 36.20 projected votes, priced at $1.20 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 29.35 votes at $34, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 28.17 votes at $10. Our best bet is Daicos at $1.20, backed by a season-long best bet record that has followed him from $4.00 in Round 1.

The Brownlow appears to be run and won after another dominant Nick Daicos performance, but there are still a number of long shots on our leaderboard in top-five calculations including a new entrant paying $126.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 20

Best Bet

Nick Daicos

What can I say? Nick Daicos is super-short but he just doesn’t lose from here, with West Coast in his run home in Round 22.

Last week we thought that maybe the Crows would be too good for Collingwood, but Daicos had other ideas with an absolute masterclass which will result in another three votes.

If you followed us all year and put $1 on every best bet after each round across the season, you’d be well placed with the following riding on Daicos:

So the $1.20 this round is short, but hopefully the groundwork is in place during the year.

Back Nick Daicos @ $1.20 with betr

Lay

Jordan Dawson

Jordan Dawson is fourth favourite but nowhere to be seen on our leaderboard.

He copped the Ed Allan tag in the second half of Adelaide’s Round 20 loss to Collingwood, and won’t poll in a losing team.

Dawson has fallen outside our top-ten now, and although the $26 is probably an accurate price, I would advise against placing the Crow in any exotics when the markets open.

Back Jordan Dawson @ $26 with betr

Value Bet

Will Ashcroft

He is flying home, and will be a genuine top-five chance at season’s end.

The top three on our leaderboard is pretty much locked in with Cripps and Bontempelli fighting it out for second spot behind Daicos, but Will Ashcroft could move into fourth place after Round 21 with the Lions facing the Blues.

After Carlton, the Lions will take on Hawthorn, Gold Coast and Collingwood, with the Pies the only team with a defensive midfielder in Ed Allan. Assuming Brisbane wins three of their next four, it’s Will Ashcroft that will likely feature in the votes. He’s had 30+ disposals in his last six games and is Brisbane’s form player.

Back Will Ashcroft @ $126 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

As of Round 19 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 33.03 projected votes, priced at $1.45 to win. Marcus Bontempelli sits second on 26.52 votes at $9.00, with Patrick Cripps third on 26.36 votes at $34. Our best bet is Bontempelli at $9.00, with the Bulldogs facing a favourable run home that could close the gap on Daicos.

Nick Daicos had plenty of it in Collingwood’s Round 19 win over the Blues. Is he a sure thing to win the 2026 Brownlow?

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 19

Best Bet

Marcus Bontempelli

Can the Bont make a late run? He’s got some work to do, but the Bulldogs face Richmond this week and North Melbourne in Round 22, so a big three weeks ahead which could put him within striking distance of Daicos with two rounds remaining.

As for Daicos, the dream post-bye run for the Pies has come to an end. Collingwood have Adelaide on Thursday night, along with Geelong, Hawthorn and Brisbane in the run home, so the votes will likely slow down from here.

The issue for Bont is that he’s surprisingly polled below expectation in the majority of seasons dating back to 2019, but the positive is that the Bulldog did outperform his projected votes last year. Can he carry that momentum into the 2026 count? I think he’ll be significantly shorter than $9 come Brownlow Night.

Back Marcus Bontempelli @ $9.00 with betr

Lay

Isaac Heeney

He’s one of the best handful of players in the competition and having an outstanding season, but the Swans’ lull has pushed Heeney out of Brownlow contention.

Although he’s currently listed as third favourite, we have Heeney in eighth place on our leaderboard with Jordan Dawson only slightly behind him.

The biggest concern is Heeney’s polling history. He’s notoriously polled below expectation, including last year where Chad Warner polled like a maniac as Sydney’s leading poller. Heeney would need to turn the tables and poll well above expectation, which he’s never done before across his career.

Back Isaac Heeney @ $14 with betr

Value Bet

Will Ashcroft

In career-best form which is in conjunction with Brisbane’s resurgence.

Will Ashcroft has had 30+ disposals in his last five games, and we have him polling 11 votes during this stretch, moving into tenth place on our leaderboard with 17.64 votes.

Year on year his numbers are close to identical, polling just 11 votes in 2025. But last year McCluggage and Zorko combined for 35 votes, and the pair have been injured for a large chunk of the season, or in McCluggage’s case completely out of form. Ashcroft will be consuming a lot of those votes this year.

He can’t win it, but he’s a watch for exotics.

Back Will Ashcroft @ $126 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

As of Round 18 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 30.65 projected votes, priced at $1.60 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 24.26 votes at $34, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 23.68 votes at $10. Our best bet is Cripps at $34, with the value play being Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera at $51.

Nick Daicos is the red-hot favourite after another strong performance, but can we take the $1.60 as our best bet after Round 18?

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 18

Best Bet

Patrick Cripps

Could this be an extraordinary case of deja vu for Nick Daicos? It was 2023, Round 18 was complete and Daicos was a $1.60 favourite to win the Brownlow Medal. He played two more games without polling a vote, before injury struck resulting in him missing the rest of the home and away season.

I’m not saying this will happen again, but $1.60 is incredibly short with six games remaining, and with the work being done to Daicos during the game on the weekend, I can’t guarantee he’s home.

Cripps won’t poll in their loss to Carlton, but we still have the Blues’ skipper in second place on our leaderboard. It’s a huge clash this weekend with the Pies which could be Brownlow defining. A Blues win could see Collingwood potentially win just one game in the last six, which gives the field a chance of making late ground.

Back Patrick Cripps @ $34 with betr

Lay

Luke Jackson

Luke Jackson is the sixth line of betting, but there are so many indicators that suggest the big man won’t even finish inside the top-ten on Brownlow Night.

Firstly, he’s a ruckman, and yes, he did poll well last year, but not at a level where he’s a genuine Brownlow contender.

He’s also in a team which is absolutely stacked with players that can poll on any given night. Our leaderboard had five Dockers inside the top-40, with four players on 10+ votes.

We didn’t have Jackson in the votes in Round 18, and as a result he’s dropped outside our top-15 on 14.76 votes.

Back Luke Jackson @ $18 with betr

Value Bet

Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera

The Saints have had a nice run of form winning three of their last four games, and Wanganeen-Milera has been flying.

We saw the exact same thing this time last season where the Saint stormed into Brownlow calculations, finishing equal ninth on 23 votes. We have Wanganeen-Milera polling around 8.25 votes in his last five games, and the Saints have a decent stretch ahead which gives him plenty more opportunities.

They get a wounded Cats on Thursday night, along with North Melbourne, Gold Coast and Richmond in their run home. Currently in 12th place on 16.29 votes, I’d be shocked if he didn’t finish inside the top-eight from here.

Back Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera @ $51 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Another big performance from Nick Daicos sees the Collingwood superstar extend his lead after Round 17, but the two others on the podium remain at big prices.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 17

Best Bet

Nick Daicos

It’s short and we’ve seen this movie before back in 2023 when he got injured late and was overrun by Lachie Neale, but I just cannot see Nick Daicos getting beaten this time around.

His next two weeks are against North Melbourne, where he might get the O’Sullivan tag, followed by the Blues who he has an outstanding record against. After Carlton, the Magpies face the Crows, and we saw what Zak Butters did to them just a week ago.

Although there’s still seven rounds left and Collingwood has a somewhat difficult draw, if they win three games it will likely result in three three-voters, which has Daicos pushing 40 votes. Although this wasn’t enough in 2024, it will be in 2026.

Back Nick Daicos @ $1.75 with betr

Lay

Jordan Dawson

It’s now Nick Daicos vs the field, with every other player listed in double digits, but I can’t have Jordan Dawson fifth line of betting despite a strong outing on the weekend.

Our leaderboard doesn’t have Dawson inside our top-ten, currently on 16.54 votes after Round 17.

The Adelaide skipper has been outstanding, but a slow start to the season has him coming from a long way back. There are plenty of others we have ahead of him at a far better price, such as Newcombe and Cripps.

Back Jordan Dawson @ $16 with betr

Value Bet

Jason Horne-Francis

Sheezel is the obvious value at $67, but the Kangaroos have a difficult run, so I’m taking Jason Horne-Francis who is coming in hot.

Although Port Adelaide’s run isn’t much easier, they have been playing the better football between the two teams when up against quality opposition, and it’s off the back of Butters and Horne-Francis.

We now have Horne-Francis in tenth place on our leaderboard with 17.18 votes, potentially polling 11 votes across his last six games.

He has polled well in the past, including 16 votes in 2023 when he was projected less than eight.

Back Jason Horne-Francis @ $81 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.

Nick Daicos’ lead continues after another dominant performance, while right behind him sit two players priced in the $20s, plus an $81 chance moves into our top-five.

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 16

Best Bet

Patrick Cripps

Purely due to room to improve price wise, I have to take Patrick Cripps once again. According to our leaderboard, Cripps is the only player within striking distance of Nick Daicos, just over three votes behind the star Magpie.

Carlton face Richmond this week before a tougher challenge in Round 18 against the Hawks. Assuming the Blues win their seventh game in a row, Cripps will again have a big chance of polling the maximum, with our numbers having him do so in six of his last seven games.

Although the market is slow on one of the greatest pollers in Brownlow history, there’s every chance he’s around $10 off the back of a best-on-ground performance against the Tigers.

Back Patrick Cripps @ $26 with betr

Lay

Luke Jackson

Having an unbelievable year, but the spread of votes in this Fremantle outfit could be Jackson’s downfall.

Ruckmen generally don’t poll too well, but Jackson did surprise last year with 17 votes so I’m not ruling that out. According to our leaderboard he’s a long way from Daicos in ninth place on 14.76 votes, for someone marked as a $10 equal-fourth favourite in the market.

We have five Fremantle players inside our top-35 with 8+ votes, so the sheer competition for votes at the Dockers will make this tough for Jackson.

Back Luke Jackson @ $10 with betr

Value Bet

Harry Sheezel

He’s been our value for three straight weeks now and he remains our clear-cut value after another best-on performance against the Bombers.

Sheezel has now moved inside the top-five on our leaderboard, leapfrogging the likes of Heeney ($8) and Smith ($10), and North Melbourne get yet another huge opportunity on the weekend against the Power.

After that he’ll face the Magpies, a matchup midfielders can get a hold of as well, so there’s the potential we continue to see more votes coming Sheezel’s way in the next fortnight. He probably has the closest profile to Daicos this season, minus the scoreboard impact.

Back Harry Sheezel @ $81 with betr

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.