Alongside that milestone, we also get a blockbuster clash between Geelong and Sydney, while Port Adelaide host Carlton at Adelaide Oval.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast Suns

Leg 1 – Zane Duursma 1+ Goals

Zane Duursma had a quieter outing last week against Adelaide, but he certainly wasn’t alone in North Melbourne’s disappointing performance.

The young Kangaroos forward has still shown encouraging signs throughout the middle portion of the season.

Across the last eight weeks, Duursma has kicked 13 goals and has hit the scoreboard in five of those matches.

Marvel Stadium also appears to suit his game perfectly.

In his last four appearances at the venue, Duursma has booted 10 goals.

Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans

Leg 2 – Chad Warner 1+ Goals

Chad Warner’s role has shifted noticeably in 2026, spending far more time rotating between midfield and forward.

His scoreboard impact has remained excellent.

Warner has kicked 12 goals this season and has recorded at least one major in eight of his 10 matches.

With Geelong likely to send Oisin Mullin toward Isaac Heeney, Warner should receive more freedom around stoppages and inside 50.

That should translate into another goal-scoring performance.

Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles

Leg 3 – Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals

West Coast simply do not have a matchup capable of slowing Nick Daicos.

The Collingwood superstar has fallen just short of 30 disposals over the past fortnight, but those performances came against two elite taggers in Oisin Mullin and James Jordan.

Even then, Daicos still managed 29 disposals in both games.

Before that stretch, he had opened the season with seven straight matches of 30+ disposals.

In Scott Pendlebury’s historic 433rd game, in front of what should be a massive pro-Collingwood crowd, Daicos looks primed for another monster performance.

Port Adelaide Power vs Carlton Blues

Leg 4 – Port Adelaide Win

Interim coaches often produce a short-term bounce in their first game, but history suggests maintaining that momentum becomes far more difficult in week two.

Across the last 10 caretaker coaching appointments, teams are 5-5 first-up, but just 2-7 in the second game.

Josh Fraser now faces that challenge against a Port Adelaide side that has quietly been far more competitive than their win-loss record suggests.

The Power have covered the line in five straight matches and continue to perform strongly in underlying metrics despite sitting outside the top eight.

At Adelaide Oval, they look well placed to halt Carlton’s momentum.

Same Game Multi

Zane Duursma 1+ Goals / Chad Warner 1+ Goals / Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals / Port Adelaide Power = $5.75

Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers

The pre-game festivities should once again deliver an incredible atmosphere at the MCG, even if the football itself may not reach the same heights.

Richmond are battling significant injury issues and only just managed to field a full squad, while Essendon also enter the clash with just one win to their name in 2026.

On paper, the Bombers should probably win, but the stronger value appears to sit within the player and game markets rather than trying to predict the result outright.

Leg 1 – Under 172.5 Total Points

Everything points toward a lower-scoring contest.

The last four meetings between these clubs have all gone under the total points line, averaging just 130.8 points per game.

Last season, in a similarly scrappy matchup between the sides, the game produced only 83 total points.

Essendon’s recent night games at the MCG have also trended heavily toward the under, with four of their last five finishing below the line.

Meanwhile, 14 of Richmond’s last 16 matches at the MCG have also gone under.

Leg 2 – Jaxon Prior 15+ Disposals

Essendon are likely to adopt a slower, possession-heavy style similar to what they used against Melbourne earlier this season.

That game style suits Jaxon Prior perfectly across half-back.

Prior is averaging 16.4 disposals per game this season and has recorded 15+ disposals in six of his last eight matches.

Against Melbourne, he finished with 17 disposals and 10 marks while playing a key role in Essendon’s controlled ball movement.

With Ben McKay returning to handle more defensive responsibility, Prior should be freed up to intercept and distribute.

Leg 3 – Sullivan Robey 1+ Goals

Sullivan Robey has been one of the few bright spots in a difficult season for Essendon supporters.

The young forward kicked two goals against Fremantle last week and looks capable of a genuine breakout performance against an undermanned Richmond defence.

Robey was a prolific scorer during the back half of last year in the Coates Talent League and has now kicked at least one goal in three of his last five AFL appearances.

This matchup gives him every chance to continue that run.

Leg 4 – Jack Ross 20+ Disposals

Jack Ross has quietly become Richmond’s most reliable midfielder throughout 2026.

He’s averaging 23.5 disposals per game this season and has reached 20+ disposals in eight of his 10 matches, including each of his last five.

Across that five-game stretch, Ross is averaging an impressive 26.2 disposals.

Essendon are conceding the second most disposals in the AFL this season, particularly to opposition midfielders, which sets this matchup up nicely for Ross once again.

Same Game Multi

Under 172.5 Total Points / Prior 15+ Disposals / Robey 1+ Goals / Ross 20+ Disposals = $5.60

Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows

Hawthorn have been slightly off their best over the past few weeks, recording one draw and two losses from their last three games.

Now they return to UTAS Stadium, where they last tasted victory back in Round 7.

Adelaide arrive in strong form, winning five of their last six matches, and they pushed Hawthorn all the way at this venue last season.

Leg 1 – Hawthorn 1-39

UTAS Stadium continues to be one of the strongest home-ground advantages in football for Hawthorn.

The Hawks have won their last 11 matches at the venue and have covered the line in 12 of their last 13 games there.

Interestingly, the one game they failed to cover was against Adelaide last season when the Crows lost by just three points.

Hawthorn have also won four of their last five meetings against Adelaide overall.

Still, the Crows have been competitive as underdogs throughout 2026, covering the line in three of five games in that role, with the Brisbane loss the clear outlier.

Expect Hawthorn to get the job done at home, but this shapes as another tight contest rather than a blowout.

Leg 2 – Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals

Jai Newcombe wasn’t quite at his dominant best against Melbourne last week, but this matchup sets up perfectly for a bounce-back performance.

Adelaide are conceding the second most clearances per game in the AFL this season, while Newcombe ranks among the league’s elite clearance players at 7.5 per game.

When Hawthorn faced Gold Coast earlier this season — the AFL’s worst clearance defence statistically — Newcombe exploded for 30 disposals.

This matchup profiles similarly for the Hawks midfielder.

Leg 3 – James Sicily 20+ Disposals

James Sicily continues to be one of the most reliable disposal accumulators in the competition from defence.

The Hawthorn skipper is averaging 22.2 disposals per game in 2026 and has recorded 20+ disposals in eight of his nine matches this season.

His role within Hawthorn’s ball movement remains critical, particularly at UTAS where the Hawks love controlling possession across half-back.

Leg 4 – Josh Rachele 1+ Goals

Josh Rachele’s brief midfield experiment appears to be over for now, with Matthew Nicks increasingly deploying him as a permanent small forward.

Against North Melbourne last week, Rachele attended a season-low 9% of centre bounces and responded by kicking three goals.

Across the last three weeks, he has attended fewer than 20% of centre bounces in each game while kicking seven goals in total.

He has also kicked at least two goals in all three of those matches.

With his forward role now firmly established again, Rachele should continue finding scoreboard opportunities.

Same Game Multi

Hawthorn 1-39 / Newcombe 25+ Disposals / Rachele 1+ Goals / Sicily 20+ Disposals = $5.90

Adelaide Crows vs North Melbourne Kangaroos

Leg 1 – North Melbourne +15.5

I’m not convinced Adelaide are travelling quite as well as the market suggests heading into this matchup.

The Crows battled for three quarters against Richmond last week and were fortunate to escape with a win over Port Adelaide the round before.

Adelaide have covered the line just once in five home games this season and are yet to cover as favourites in 2026.

North Melbourne, meanwhile, have covered in six of their seven games as underdogs this season and look capable of pushing this right to the line.

Leg 2 – Finn O’Sullivan 20+ Disposals

Finn O’Sullivan is now fully entrenched in North Melbourne’s midfield setup.

Playing as the defensive-minded midfielder, O’Sullivan has recorded 20+ disposals in five straight games while his centre bounce involvement continues to rise.

Last week against Sydney he attended 82% of centre bounces, and if he gets similar midfield exposure against Adelaide he should comfortably clear this line again.

The Crows continue to allow opposition midfielders to find plenty of football.

Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks

Leg 3 – Kade Chandler 1+ Goals

Chandler has quietly become one of Melbourne’s most consistent performers this season and continues to hit the scoreboard regularly.

He has kicked a goal in eight of nine games in 2026, with 11 goals for the season overall.

Hawthorn head into this clash without Sam Frost, Jack Gunston and Conor Nash, leaving major holes across both their spine and midfield depth.

That should allow Melbourne to generate plenty of scoring opportunities, with Chandler likely to capitalise again.

Carlton Blues vs Western Bulldogs

Leg 4 – Jagga Smith 20+ Disposals

With Josh Fraser stepping into the senior coaching role following Michael Voss’ resignation, this feels like the perfect opportunity to unleash Jagga Smith through the midfield.

Smith has only been used sparingly at centre bounce level this season, but he’s still consistently found the football.

The young Blue has recorded 20+ disposals in six of nine games this season and narrowly missed in two others with 19 disposals.

Coming off 25 touches last week, expect Fraser to give Smith even more midfield responsibility.

Multi

North Melbourne +15.5 / O’Sullivan 20+ Disposals / Chandler 1+ Goals / Smith 20+ Disposals = $6.60

Sydney Swans vs Collingwood Magpies

Collingwood head into this clash undermanned, with Scott Pendlebury, Darcy Moore, Darcy Cameron and Patrick Lipinski all unavailable.

While it looks a difficult assignment on paper against the red-hot Swans, Craig McRae’s side has consistently shown an ability to compete when challenged.

Leg 1 – Ned Long 20+ Disposals

With Pendlebury sidelined, expect Ned Long to spend significantly more time at centre bounce against Sydney.

The last time Pendlebury missed, Long attended 67% of centre bounces and finished with 22 disposals.

In his last three games with over 40% centre bounce attendances, Long has recorded exactly 22 disposals each time.

Even last week, despite attending just 10% of centre bounces, he still found 18 touches, showing he’s tracking the ball well regardless of role.

Leg 2 – Callum Mills 20+ Disposals

Opposition defenders continue to rack up disposals against Collingwood, making this another strong matchup for Callum Mills.

Mills is averaging 23.9 disposals across his last 20 games and has hit 20+ in 18 of those, including eight of nine this season.

The Magpies are happy to allow teams to control possession in defensive areas, so expect Mills, Nick Blakey and Matt Roberts to all see plenty of football.

Gold Coast Suns vs Port Adelaide Power

The Suns have turned TIO Stadium into a fortress in recent seasons, but Port Adelaide remain something of a bogey side for Gold Coast.

Leg 3 – Gold Coast Suns 1-39

Gold Coast have won their last nine games at TIO Stadium and rightly enter this clash as favourites.

Still, Port Adelaide have consistently performed well as underdogs this season, covering the line in four of their five games in that role.

The Power also boast an incredible recent record against the Suns, winning 15 of the last 16 meetings including an upset victory last year.

Gold Coast should still get the job done at home, but expect a tighter contest than the market suggests.

Leg 4 – Zak Butters 30+ Disposals

The Suns are unlikely to tag Zak Butters, and opposition midfielders have consistently found plenty of football against Gold Coast this season.

Last week alone, St Kilda midfielders Hugo Garcia, Max Hall and Jack Sinclair all found plenty of the ball against the Suns.

Butters has now recorded 30+ disposals in eight straight games and had 35 disposals in each of his last two appearances against Gold Coast.

Everything points towards another monster outing.

Multi

Gold Coast 1-39 / Butters 30+ Disposals / Long 20+ Disposals / Mills 20+ Disposals = $8.40

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats

Brisbane were victorious the last time these two teams met, running over the top of Geelong in the second half of the 2025 Grand Final.

Both sides remain among the AFL’s top tier in 2026, currently sitting fourth and fifth on the ladder respectively.

It’s Geelong’s recent form that stands out, however, with a last-quarter rampage against North Melbourne followed by a demolition of Collingwood.

How will the Cats perform when they return to the Gabba for this Grand Final rematch?

Leg 1 – Geelong +15.5

I think Geelong can make this much tighter than the market suggests.

The Cats have covered the line in six of their last nine against Brisbane, and if we go back to 2014 they’ve covered in 16 of 21 meetings.

More importantly, Geelong has a strong recent record at the Gabba.

They’ve won five of their last nine at the venue against Brisbane and covered in eight of those nine, including their two most recent losses there in 2023 and 2025.

Leg 2 – Jack Martin 1+ Goals

Martin has put together a solid season for Geelong inside forward 50.

He has kicked a goal in each of his last seven games and has 11 goals for the season, including two in each of his last two matches.

Small forwards have found opportunities against Brisbane recently as the Lions continue to patch holes in their depleted back six.

Hayward and Ainsworth combined for five goals last week, and Martin should get his chances here.

Leg 3 – Will Ashcroft 25+ Disposals

When assessing Geelong matchups, it often starts with who Oisin Mullin tags.

I expect Mullin to go to Hugh McCluggage here, after doing a strong job on him in last year’s qualifying final.

That should open the door for Will Ashcroft to take on more of the midfield load.

Ashcroft has recorded 25+ disposals in six of nine games this season, including three of his last four.

He also dominated this matchup last year, averaging 30.8 disposals across four games against Geelong and clearing 25+ in all four.

Leg 4 – Dayne Zorko 25+ Disposals

Geelong has restricted general defenders well this season, but designated kickers have still found enough football against them.

That keeps Zorko firmly in play.

He started the season in brilliant form before suffering an injury against North Melbourne in Round 6.

If we remove that injury-affected game, Zorko is averaging 27.2 disposals this season, with last week against Carlton his only miss under 25.

He also averaged 31 disposals across four games against Geelong last season, clearing 25+ in all four.

Same Game Multi

Geelong +15.5 / Ashcroft 25+ Disposals / Martin 1+ Goals / Zorko 25+ Disposals = $5.10

Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues

This has the potential to get ugly for Carlton, with Brisbane holding a dominant recent record over the Blues at the Gabba.

However, despite the mismatch on paper, don’t expect a shootout.

Leg 1 – Under 186.5 Total Points

Both Brisbane and Carlton have consistently featured in lower-scoring night games across the last two seasons.

From Carlton’s last 23 night matches, 17 have finished under the total points line, with the Blues averaging just 71.4 points per game during that stretch.

The Lions have produced similar trends, with only five of their last 21 night games clearing the over.

Four of Brisbane’s last five matches have also gone under, making this total feel slightly inflated.

Leg 2 – Conor McKenna 1+ Goals

McKenna has slotted back into Brisbane’s side beautifully after strong VFL form earned him a recall.

Playing as a small forward, the Irishman has kicked two goals in each of his two games this season.

Carlton have struggled badly against smaller forwards in 2026, conceding goals to that player type 38% above league average.

Liam Henry exposed that weakness last week with three goals for St Kilda, and McKenna shapes as another dangerous matchup.

Port Adelaide Power vs Western Bulldogs

Port Adelaide pushed Adelaide all the way in last week’s Showdown and continue to build strong form under Josh Carr.

The Bulldogs were more competitive against Fremantle last round, but are still searching for their first win since Round 4.

Leg 3 – Aliir Aliir 15+ Disposals

Aliir is producing career-best numbers in Josh Carr’s system, averaging personal highs for both disposals and marks.

The Power defender is averaging 17.2 disposals per game and has reached 15+ disposals in six of eight matches this season.

Opposition defenders continue to rack up plenty of football against the Bulldogs, making this another favourable matchup.

Just two weeks ago Patrick McCartin collected 23 disposals in a very similar role against the Dogs.

Leg 4 – Zak Butters 30+ Disposals

Zak Butters is putting together a phenomenal season and the Bulldogs may not have a player capable of slowing him down.

The Port Adelaide star is averaging 30.6 disposals per game and has now recorded 30+ touches in seven consecutive matches.

He also has an excellent recent record against the Bulldogs, reaching 30 disposals in three of his last four meetings against them.

Right now, Butters looks to be in the best ball-winning form of his career.

Same Game Multi

Lions vs Blues Under 186.5 Points / McKenna 1+ Goals / Aliir Aliir 15+ Disposals / Butters 30+ Disposals = $6.65

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans

Leg 1 – Justin McInerney 1+ Goals

Justin McInerney’s role has evolved significantly in 2026, spending more time around centre bounces after previously operating almost exclusively as a wingman.

The added midfield responsibility hasn’t impacted his scoreboard output either.

McInerney has kicked at least one goal in seven of his eight matches this season and already has 11 majors to his name.

Midfielder-forwards have consistently found success against North Melbourne this year, giving McInerney every chance to hit the scoreboard once again.

GWS Giants vs Essendon Bombers

Leg 2 – Essendon +45.5

The Bombers have been smashed by both Collingwood and Brisbane over the past fortnight, but this shapes as a very different challenge.

GWS have quietly been one of the worst teams in the competition against the line this season, covering in only two of their eight matches.

Despite sitting 17th on the ladder, Essendon have still managed to cover four times in 2026.

For a Giants side sitting 3-5 with the fifth-worst percentage in the AFL, this spread feels inflated.

Gold Coast Suns vs St Kilda Saints

Leg 3 – Hugo Garcia 20+ Disposals

Garcia finished strongly against Carlton last week after a quiet opening half, collecting 12 disposals after the main break.

Prior to that game, the Saints midfielder had recorded 24+ disposals in three straight matches while averaging 27.3 touches per game.

The Suns have allowed opposition midfielders to accumulate plenty of football this season, and Garcia’s continued centre bounce involvement gives him every opportunity to bounce back here.

Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies

Leg 4 – Patrick Dangerfield 1+ Goals

Dangerfield hasn’t quite hit his peak form yet in 2026, but he continues to impact the scoreboard.

The Geelong veteran has kicked a goal in every game he’s played this season and shapes as a major factor in a huge Saturday night clash.

He loves rising for the big occasion, and after a quieter fortnight, this feels like the type of game where he reasserts himself.

Dangerfield collected 29 disposals and a goal against Collingwood last season and should once again be heavily involved around the contest.

Same Game Multi

McInerney 1+ Goals / Essendon +45.5 / Garcia 20+ Disposals / Dangerfield 1+ Goals = $5.50

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks

Fremantle extended their winning streak to seven matches last week, surviving a late Bulldogs charge to remain one of the hottest teams in the competition.

Now they return home to Optus Stadium where they’ve built a serious fortress, facing a Hawthorn side coming off a dramatic draw against Collingwood.

The Hawks were fortunate to escape with two points last Thursday night thanks to Dylan Moore’s goal after the siren, but they’ll need a much sharper performance here against a Dockers outfit that matches up well on them.

Leg 1 – Fremantle

The Dockers should have the edge through the midfield with Serong, Brayshaw, Young, Reid and Bolton all in strong form.

Fremantle also profile extremely well defensively against Hawthorn’s dangerous small forwards, restricting goals to midfielder-forwards 44% below league average this season.

That becomes particularly important against players like Watson and Macdonald.

The Dockers have also dominated this matchup recently, winning seven of their last eight against Hawthorn and covering the line in six of those games.

At Optus Stadium specifically, Fremantle have won five straight against the Hawks including a 13-point victory last season.

Leg 2 – Heath Chapman 15+ Disposals

This shapes as a lower-disposal style game with both teams ranking among the best defensively at limiting opposition possessions.

That makes consistent 15+ disposal players appealing, and Heath Chapman fits perfectly.

The Dockers defender is averaging 17.9 disposals per game this season and has recorded 15+ disposals in seven of eight appearances.

Leg 3 – Dylan Moore 1+ Goals

Dylan Moore continues to produce remarkable consistency year after year for Hawthorn.

He’s kicked eight goals from seven matches this season and has scored at least one goal in five of those games.

Looking further back, Moore has kicked a goal in 15 of his last 19 matches overall.

He also enjoys this matchup, hitting the scoreboard in each of his last three games against Fremantle.

Leg 4 – Blake Hardwick 15+ Disposals

Hardwick remains a crucial piece in Hawthorn’s ball movement from defensive half.

Even after a slow start against Collingwood last week where he had only three disposals at half-time, he still found a way to finish on 15.

Hardwick is averaging 18 disposals per game this season and has now recorded 15+ disposals in seven consecutive matches.

Given Hawthorn’s preference to switch and control possession from half-back, he should once again see enough football.

Same Game Multi

Fremantle / Chapman 15+ Disposals / Moore 1+ Goals / Hardwick 15+ Disposals = $5.00

Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions

Leg 1 – Brisbane Lions 40+

The Lions have an outstanding record at Marvel Stadium dating back to 2019.

They’ve covered the line in 12 of their last 14 at the venue, with the only misses coming in their two losses.

Essendon’s forward structure is weakened with Kako and May out, and they’re already leaking scores defensively. Hard to see them keeping this close.

West Coast Eagles vs Richmond Tigers

Leg 2 – Willem Duursma 20+ Disposals

This shapes as a breakout opportunity for Duursma.

He attended 73% of centre bounces last week and finished with 25 disposals.

The number one pick has hit 20+ in four of his last five games and should find plenty of ball against a depleted Richmond side.

Geelong Cats vs North Melbourne Kangaroos

Leg 3 – Finn O’Sullivan 20+ Disposals

O’Sullivan returned from injury last week and went straight back into the midfield.

He attended 76% of centre bounces and is averaging 23 disposals across his last three games.

Expect him to run with Bailey Smith and be around the contest all game.

Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints

Leg 4 – Jack Higgins 2+ Goals

Higgins is putting together a strong season with 16 goals so far.

He’s kicked 2+ in five of his last six games, including nine across the last two weeks.

He’s also kicked multiple goals in his last two games against Carlton.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane 40+ / Willem Duursma 20+ Disposals / Finn O’Sullivan 20+ Disposals / Higgins 2+ Goals = $6.45