From the Trader’s Desk – Winx Stakes Day

This week’s headline play is the Group 1 Winx Stakes at Randwick, with Autumn Glow our primary selection at 5.5 units at $1.90. Gringotts is our each way play at $26 win and $4.20 place, while King of the Sea and Boniface are our strongest Traders’ Best Bets at 3 units apiece.

Randwick takes centre stage this weekend as the first Group 1 of the new season takes place with the running of the Winx Stakes. Supported by a strong undercard, let’s take a look at the key races and who our traders are targeting in early markets.

Feature Races

Randwick

Winx Stakes – Randwick – 1400m G1

Good contest for the first Group 1 of the season. The market tells you it’s a match race between Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi and it’s hard to argue, especially first up at 1400m. Autumn Glow comes off a failed run at 2000m last start, this suits her much better and the camp has been open in saying she’s forward. Gets the run of the race from the draw and looks hard to hold out. The $1.90 currently on offer looks enticing simply off her SP profile and the fact that I think she’s in front of Sheza Alibi in the run.

Sheza Alibi I think has the more upside of the two and is potentially more brilliant, but gate one is just horrid. Likely three or four back the paint and will need the gaps at the right time. Can see the market chipping at Beiwacht or Lindermann from a map perspective if on pace, with the latter having trialled particularly well. If there’s to be an upset, I think it could be Gringotts who has similarly trialled up enormous and is well suited at 1400m. Gets a great run from the draw and is an underrated galloper.

Autumn Glow @ $1.90 (5.5 Units)
Gringotts @ $26 / $4.20 EW (0.2 Units Win / 1.5 Units Place)

Silver Shadow Stakes – Randwick – 1200m G2 – 3YO Fillies

The three-year-old fillies line up here in the first leg of the princess series. Not a star-studded field in my opinion so looking to take on a few of those towards the pointy end of the market. Agrarian Girl boasts some nice form from her two-year-old campaign but looks a speedy type and vulnerable at six furlongs. Striking Alibi I have no idea what to make of having transferred stables from the west to Chris Waller. She won on debut at 60/1 then failed at $14 in the Karakatta. Trialled nice enough but I couldn’t possibly have. Pembrey draws awkward. Cherry Bombshell trialled nicely and up against the top liners. Love the way she went out with a win at this course and distance, but I don’t love the rider here. Bangkok Hottie looked the winner first up before potentially just giving out late. Comes on from that and the race fitness may be to her benefit. Global Goal very interesting. Out of this camp they are usually looking for further, but the Friendly Fire form reads ok and I liked her trials. $13 looks a good price to find out in a race that looks very open.

Bangkok Hottie @ $8.00 (0.7 Units)
Global Goal @ $11.00 (0.5 Units)

Toy Show Quality – Randwick – 1100m G3

Not much of a field this year for the sprinters with Apocalyptic the headline horse resuming from what was a lacklustre autumn campaign. She has trialled sharply for this, it’s just whether or not the 1100m is her go, but a small field and a bit of speed on paper does see her set up well. I can’t take the shorts. Savvy Hallie was the one to knock her off last prep, but she doesn’t get it all her own way on Saturday on the map. Prima Bella a question mark at 1100m. I’m happy to have something small on Karinska here who is likely needing further but sprinted every bit as well as Apocalyptic first up last prep. She’s moved nicely at the trials and in a small field I would not at all be surprised to see her sit off a hot speed and hit the line.

Karinska @ $21.00 (0.5 Units)

Traders’ Best Bets

Randwick Race 1 – Isawyou

Scratched from an easier race at Hawkesbury on Thursday which is a nice pointer. Question marks on the form out of his maiden but had no right to win. Tough race here with a capacity field but think he has a bit of upside and happy to be on at double figures.

Isawyou @ $10.00 / $3.30 EW (0.5 Units Win / 2 Units Place)

Randwick Race 4 – King of the Sea

Resuming stayer who was very good in his first Australian prep without winning. Finds a weak BM race first up at the mile with McDonald going aboard.

King of the Sea @ $2.60 (3 Units)

Randwick Race 5 – Boniface

Should have won last start without traffic issues when the market loved him. Peaks out to 2000m.

Boniface @ $2.80 (3 Units)

Sandown Race 7 – Extragalactic

Will be the best horse in the race, just whether the 1000m first up is too sharp. Sandown and with speed on I think she can get over the top. Monitor the track pattern and bet accordingly.

Extragalactic @ $4.20 (1.6 Units)

Running Total: -19.1 Units

Big Bets

Where the money has been going across the weekend’s major meetings.

Randwick

Sandown

Bet on this weekend’s racing with betr

This week’s headline play is the Group 2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes at Caulfield, with Evaporate our Feature Race pick at 1 unit. Natural Fling heads our Quezette Stakes selections at 2.5 units, while Attica is our strongest Traders’ Best Bet at 2 units in Rosehill Race 9.

Welcome back to betr’s From the Trader’s Desk. A slow start to our series last week unfortunately, but plenty of races to come this spring. Let’s take a look at this week’s feature races from across the country, the big bets we have laid early at betr, and who our traders think are worth a wager this weekend.

Feature Races

Melbourne

P.B. Lawrence Stakes – Caulfield – 1400m G2

Interesting contest, with Cosmic Crusader coming off a dominant win in the Bletchingly where he got up along the inside in the worst going and ran away from them. Out to 1400m can only be a tick and boasts race fitness over his rivals. Hard to beat no doubt but 6/4 seems rock bottom. Private Eye won this race last year first up but comes off just the one trial this time. Desert Lightning very good first up last campaign when wide at Mornington but may need the run. Feroce similar, just not sure where he gets to from that draw. Evaporate I thought could be the one ready to go here and gets map advantage in a race where I don’t think they’ll go too solid. Happy to play Evaporate.

1 Unit – Evaporate

Vain Stakes – Caulfield – 1100m G3 – 3YOs

Good field of now three-year-old colts and geldings resuming here and keen to bet into the race. Closer To Free happy to take on along with Hard Kick who was found out last start. Tornado Valley had a good two-year-old campaign that likely just tapered off having been up for so long. Thought he trialled the house down and gets every possible here from the draw to stalk the speed. Confederation looks the prototype improving three-year-old from this yard and thought he has moved well in both trials. Not in love with the draw but any money for him and I want to make him a winner. Outspan is very similar. I thought he was the horse who could make the leap at three and will be strong late here.

1 Unit – Tornado Valley
0.6 Unit – Confederation
0.4 Unit – Outspan

Quezette Stakes – Caulfield – 1100m G3 – 3YOs

Capacity field for the girls and we get to see the spruiked horse Natural Fling back at the races. Gone super in her jump outs and from this draw with D Lane happy to be in her corner. That Next Episode form looks a step above and expecting the market to circle her. Gapping Lara Antipova and Riverina Lulu who I think come through weak lead-ups. If they overdo it in front, Ghana’s Khan and Santa Barbara are the closers. Both exceptional hitting the line first up with things against. Happy to play both small with Natural Fling the primary bet.

2.5 Units – Natural Fling
0.5 Unit – Ghana’s Khan
0.5 Unit – Santa Barbara

Sydney

The Rosebud – Rosehill – 1100m Listed – 3YOs

Moving to Sydney and the Rosebud headlines a ten-race card. Super field assembled here. Blue Door heads the early market for Bjorn Baker resuming off one run in the Autumn where she got the better of The Next Episode in the Kindergarten. Super form profile and looks to have come back well with just the one public trial. Scared of her but happy to be against first up with the idea she might be vulnerable late. Central Europe has trialled outstanding and gets the connections of Waller/McDonald. 1100m possibly a little sharp for him but looks set for a big campaign. Castillo King enormous on debut and trialled in good fashion since but this much harder. Will get an idea of his ability here. Royal Exile interests me a lot from the draw. Ideally suited over further I think but if he stalks the speed he has the strength to finish over the top if they can utilise the draw. Chilly Girl no knocks and will be in the firing line on speed. Not awfully keen to bet but would be siding with Central Europe and small Royal Exile.

1.5 Units – Central Europe
0.3 Unit – Royal Exile

Traders’ Best Bets

Rosehill Race 2 – Thrill Hunter

Only got warm late when squeezed for room at Randwick first up. Looking for more ground and suited by the smaller field.

1 Unit – Thrill Hunter @ $6.50

Rosehill Race 4 – Kenmare Bay

Ran well for us last week, just given no hope with the ride. Sticking fat out to 1900m on the quick back up.

1 Unit – Kenmare Bay @ $6.00

Rosehill Race 6 – Beside the Ocean

Booking of McDonald a good pointer for this horse who usually goes well fresh. Tricky from the draw but in a race up for grabs happy to find him.

1 Unit – Beside the Ocean @ $6.50

Rosehill Race 9 – Attica

Althoff all the rage and easy to see why, getting home in good splits on an inside day. I’m banking on Attica just being the superior animal here off what have been two exceptional trials. Early money suggests ready to run well and late in the day down the middle may be advantageous. Monitor the track pattern but Attica the one I want to be with.

2 Units – Attica @ $3.80

Running Total: -13.5 Units

Big Bets

Where the money has been going across the weekend’s major meetings.

Caulfield

Rosehill

Bet on this weekend’s racing with betr

Our Race of the Week is the Group 2 Missile Stakes at Randwick Race 8 over 1200m, with Angel Capital our headline selection at $2.60 (3 units) and Midnight Dynamite as a small each way play at $9.00 (0.5 units). Bangkok Hottie is our strongest Traders’ Play at 5 units in Race 1.

Welcome to From the Trader’s Desk, a new weekly article by our betr racing traders taking you through the weekend’s racing. Previewing the headline races of the week, where the biggest bets have been struck, and which way the market is likely to gravitate to help you find more winners.

Race of the Week

Missile Stakes – Randwick Race 8 – 1200m G2

The Group 2 Missile Stakes headlines this week’s card from Randwick as some of the better sprinters resume. Angel Capital is the headline horse here first up off two smart trials. The quality in the field is obvious. A smaller field aids his chances and he gets every possible assist with a sympathetic map.

Gangsta Granny the second elect and one happy to oppose. Looks short enough here, clearly with map advantage, but has to take on the boys and will likely cop early pressure. Midnight Dynamite is interesting stepping back from 1500m to the six. Absolutely flying and boasts race fitness over rivals. Napoleonic and Ninja are ones to keep for another day.

How to Play It: Angel Capital sets up well here and I would assume all systems go with him in wanting to target some better races this Spring. Midnight Dynamite making a small winner.

3 Units – Angel Capital @ $2.60

0.5 Units – Midnight Dynamite @ $9.00

Traders’ Plays

The betr traders’ best bets for the weekend.

Randwick

Race 1 – Bangkok Hottie

Loved the way this filly went out with two dominant wins, oozing a bit of style. Resumes here off no public trials in what looks a very winnable benchmark race. Any luck from the draw and I think she’ll be winning.

5 Units – Bangkok Hottie @ $2.20

Race 5 – Kenmare Bay

Good in both runs back and should be set to peak here third up onto the bigger track. Senior rider goes on from the good draw. Good each way bet.

1 Unit Win / 3 Units Place – Kenmare Bay @ $8.50 / $2.80

Race 6 – Zouripper

Back and wide last week on a day where you had to be inside. Quick back up and draws inside in a race that looks up for grabs. Hopefully stalks and saves for one last shot at them.

1 Unit – Zouripper @ $6.50

Big Bets From Around the Country

Where the money has been going across the weekend’s major meetings.

Randwick

Caulfield

Eagle Farm

Bet on this weekend’s racing with betr

Check out the preview below and don’t forget to follow betr on Instagram for more racing tips. 

Melbourne Cup 2025 Tips

1. Valiant King
2. Al Riffa
3. Presage Nocturne
4. Half Yours
5. River of Stars
6. Goodie Two Shoes

Far from a vintage QE in my opinion. Via Sistina heads the market at 5/4 after beating absolutely nothing in the Ranvet but was all style. All honours her for sure overcoming the slow tempo and sectionals home were outstanding. Could be a moral but I’m wary of the change in race shape here. 13 lengths slow they went in the Ranvet to the 600m, completely different to what Pride of Jenni will serve up here after going 17 lengths fast when leading them up in the Aus Cup. Nothing to suggest a more genuinely run race won’t help Via Sistina all the same and if she can survive the acid test, then she’s the winner. POJ awfully gallant at Flemington but her past two runs must have taken something out of her and it’s a hard proposition leading all the way at Randwick, even with the rail out. Cascadian’s a beauty and runs well again but will spot the favourite a start and was ridden to perfection last start. Hate potting Joe Pride but hard to have the three-year-old back in trip. Mr. Brightside absolutely cooked and 2000m not his go. Was inclined to stay out here but the lack of opposition makes it hard. Monitoring the track but Via Sistina I think you have to be on.

BACKING – 8. VIA SISTINA  

OAKS (2400m)

The NZ filly looks a class above these. Was the most unsuited in the Vinery, stepping back in trip off a four-week break and struck a walking contest where they only sprinted from the 600m. There to be beaten but surged late and hit the line with real intent. 2400m no doubt to her advantage and there’s not much for her to beat here. The inside draws a slight niggle, with the potential to get strung up behind some slow ones but she maps in front of key rivals and J-Mac gets it right more often than not. Think only bad luck beats her. As I mentioned pre the Derby, Zardozi has had a different set up this time to when she won the Vic Oaks. Potentially not as seasoned this preparation and gives up her ace with a drying track. Record at Randwick is also far from stellar. Against her. Autumn Angel good in the Adrian Knox where the big weight beat her. Quick back-up helps and likely to have admirers but doubt she has the quality, especially at a mile and a half. If you took $1.60 Orchestral in the Vinery I’d be more comfortable taking the same price here. $1.80-$1.90 I’ll be happily stepping in.

BACKING – 1. ORCHESTRAL

SYD CUP (3200m)

Absolute lottery. Circle of Fire I couldn’t have out of a weak Chairmans and has come up with the carpark. Progressive animal but spots them a start and lines up against some seasoned campaigners here. The Tancred looks equally poor in all honesty but looks the starting point. Ashrun sports a solid SP and was good late in limited room. Weighted relatively poorly out of that run but ticks the 3200m box and no doubt set for this. Athabascan the other one out of the Tancred hitting the line in the fastest L200m split. First go two miles but gives the impression he will stay and gets down in the weights. Smell of a real take it in turn race and one to go wide in the quaddie. No interest.

QUEEN OF THE TURF (1600m)

Solid edition this year with a number of different angles. Happy to take on Zougotcha who was scratched from the Doncaster last week. Third up now which might be against her with six of her seven wins coming either first or second up. No doubt favours here drawn to stalk the speed with McDonald, but I think too short. I’m a big Tropical Squall fan and I thought her run in the Coolmore was super. Following a very similar pattern too last preparation where she exploded third up to win the Flight this course and distance. Gets Hippo back and gets total control. Probably a watch as track pattern dependant but I do think the $7 is a good price. Will wait as I think likely to get better but happy to be on each-way. Atishu the danger who loomed as the winner of the Aus Cup. Just peaked late but back to her own sex and drawn to settle close in the run. The three aforementioned look the only hopes in the race to me so likely to trade around all three but Tropical Squall to be the best result.

BACKING – 14. TROPICAL SQUALL

OTHERS

RACE 2 – 4. ROBRICK – Looks an easy bet to have at the $6, with the short SP out of the Darby Munro where nothing went right. Step to 1400m looks a positive and gets B Melham back aboard. Sticky draw but if it plays down the middle I think hard to hold out.

RACE 3 – 2. STRAIT ACER – Thought his run at Wyong was massive coming from near last to savage the line. Could just be a deep prep animal so primed here 4^th up and drawn closer to give Zahra options. Open race but happy to be on each-way.

RACE 4 – 1. LADY OF CAMELOT – Close to best of the day for me. No qualms with the extra week off and staying at the six furlongs a definite positive. Wide draw to contend with but it’s a straight run at Randwick and I think she’s just better than them. Eneeza a good run in the Slipper when had to be dragged but she had LOC’s back in the Diamond and couldn’t get past her. Empress of Japan a big win on debut at Gosford and will make a result at big odds.

RACE 5 – 1. OZZMOSIS – Speed galore engaged here so hoping he’s ridden with a smother from the good draw and if so, could absolutely explode. The trial since the Galaxy debacle was enormous and tactically advantaged here against the girls. Learning to Fly I’m not sold on. This does look a set up with the 42-day break bit I’ll stand her. Joliestar potentially the best horse in the race. Loved the trials but is six furlongs too sharp? The betting will be interesting with her.

Might be in the minority but I’m not subscribing to the talk that this is a vintage slipper. Storm Boy a deserved favourite off what we’ve seen and I’m intrigued to see what the market does with him on the day.I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start in the red and blow them away. The question mark solely looks the draw, and if he’s tardy away he could find himself in a sticky spot three back the fence and hunting for gaps. With that said, with all things being equal I think he looks the winner it’s just whether or not you want to take the price. The clear bet in the race for me is Lady Of Camelot. Herculean run in the Diamond sitting outside the lead on a hot speed and only being collared in the shadows. Trialled up superb since with B Shinn going aboard and has plenty of options from the draw. The market’s gravitated towards her but I still think good value each way and would be surprised to not see her in the finish. Happy to be around Switzerland. The horse puts himself in the right spots but he’s had all favours in each career start and more tradesman like than brilliant in my opinion. Bodyguard the best roughie in the race for mine. Snicked from a wide draw in the Todman off a setback but still hit the line nicely. Suited by a strong speed here and certainly not without claims. 

OTHER BETS

ROSEHILL RACE 6 – IMMEDIACY – Was shattered to see him come up with the wide draw cause I thought this was his race after being dominant in Melbourne. Nevertheless, likely goes back to last here but just may be the superior stayer. With a track playing fairly I think you can be on him each-way.

ROSEHILL RACE 7 – ENCAP – Unlucky in the Randwick Guineas when disappointed for a run all the way up the straight. Showed there he can run out a strong mile and gets the perfect smother here from the draw to pounce on them late. Think good value at the $9.

BACKING – 4. COLEMAN, 8. HIGH OCTANE & 10. FEARLESS

OAKLEIGH PLATE – Five and a half furlongs for the speedsters. King’s Gambit so interesting here as favourite. He’s probably better than these and very appealing with just the 50kg to carry but an absolute poison draw in 1. Will need everything to go right or a gem of a weaving steer from J Kah. Hard to see it and as such, I can’t see how you can be on him. Happy to give Asfoora another go despite her somewhat disappointing run in the Rubiton. Dominant SP there and her record at Caulfield is super. Very open race away from those two.

BACKING – 2. ASFOORA

SILVER SLIPPER – Betting says a match race and that likely looks the case with stablemates Straight Charge and Espionage set to lock horns again. It was Espionage who took first up honors in the Breeders, and I would lean his way again after trialing up strongly. Drawn to get the suck run from 3 and get over the top of them. Early money has been for Straight Charge so if the market continues to trend this way will be on Espionage at 7/4 or $3 +.

BACKING – 1. ESPIONAGE

HOBARTVILLE – Great race and the traditional Randwick Guineas lead-up. I was hot on Celestial Legend for the Guineas and have a ticket on him but I expected slightly more in the Eskimo Price. Did seem to get going again through the line but his sectionals weren’t outstanding comparatively so more hoping here for a good run. Tom Kitten was super first up hitting the line with real intent. If settles closer in the run here awfully hard to beat just no juice at the price. Encap a huge winning chance just poorly drawn. Going to have something on Ducasse who I thought really showed something first up breaking his maiden at Warwick Farm. Not far off these horses at all in the Spring and hopefully can use the good draw to settle slightly closer in the run. Around the $8/$9 mark looks acceptable in an open affair

BACKING 5. DUCASSE

OTHER BETS

Rosehill Race 7- 6. LADY LAGUNA – Looks the banker on what is a hard day. Flying running time in latest outings and boasts fitness edge over key rivals. Hard to beat. 

Rosehill Race 5 – 14. LORD ARDMORE – Awfully unsuited last start going 2000 back to the mile and racing in the worst ground. Looks a set up job back out in trip and drawn nicely for an economical run. Each-way.

Rosehill Race 9 – 5. QUICK TEMPO – He’s one of mine but was nice to see him ridden on speed in his most recent trial where he ran away from them effortlessly. Wicked turn of foot on his day so if Collett can use the draw here he’s a big price and really keen to be on him.

C.F. ORR (Race 9)

Mr. Brightside resumes off a top Spring where he went within an inch of claiming a Cox Plate. If he runs to his best, I think he simply wins this. Has shown in the past he’s a high-pressure beast and with the likes of Buffalo River and Pride of Jenni engaged, he can stalk a hot speed and finish over the top. Jumped out well and sure to be primed by Lindsay Park whom I’m tipping to have a big day. The three-year-old Veight certainly the danger. Looked just a win first up but I’m certain Moonee Valley isn’t his track and he rated well over the 1200m. Sure to be suited by the extra furlong and a horse on the up. Atishu one of mine and a horse perennially underrated by the market. Probably short of her best here but if they go suicidal in front she’ll be hitting the line  

Backing – 1. MR BRIGHTSIDE

BLUE DIAMOND PRELDE (FILLIES) (Race 7)

Like I said earlier I think it’ll be a big day for Lindsay Park, and this looks just about the best bet of the day in the shape of Bold Bastille. Ran them into the ground on debut at the Valley, running time with a leg in the air. Has had the setback but the recent jump out looked good and will trust the camp to have her right. Should jump, lead, and prove hard to get past.

If there is a stalker it looks to be Flattered who was a good run on debut when back and wide chasing Eneeza in a slowly run race. Drawn well to settle closer in the run and better suited out in trip.

Backing – 1. BOLD BASTILLE & Saving 5. FLATTERED

AUTUMN STAKES (Race 4)

Southport Tycoon looks awfully hard to beat here. Smashed in the betting first up at the Valley where he savaged the line to only be narrowly denied by Veight who goes around a live chance in the Group 1. Gets D Lane from a good draw and suited stepping to the seven furlongs. Proper form around him from the Spring and looks to have come back well. Very keen and think black odds are good odds.

Backing – 4. SOUTHPORT TYCOON

RANDWICK

ESKIMO PRINCE (Race 6)

Just about the race of the day with several handy three-year-olds resuming. Can understand the early money for Caballus, with the form already franked from his first up win and a fitness edge on his rivals. Think hard to beat but not keen to take the price with the map and he did still do things wrong first up. Celestial Legend, I think is potentially the best horse in this race just not sure about the set-up. Just one public trial where he was ridden quiet (but was super through the line) so may be a run short but he’s very talented. The draw also tricky as likely to be back on the fence. Will wait and see how the track plays and how the market treats him but think he is the Randwick Guineas winner. Makarena is the other that interests me here. She raised the bar at every run in her first campaign and trialled up strongly. Will push forward here from the draw and I give her a big chance. They’re the two for me but a great contest this.

Monitoring betting but like 6. CELESTIAL LEGEND & 9. MAKARENA

INGLIS MILLENNIUM (Race 7)

Impossible race with the lightly raced two-year-olds and a number set to peak him chasing the big prize money. As such happy to play wider and having something small on the David Payne trained Rag Queen, who was brilliant when winning on debut at Canterbury. Got the tempo to suit but she savaged the line in meeting best sectionals and did it with some style. Trialled in the interim and drawn nicely with Collett sticking with her. Good value each way I think at the $21/$5.

Backing – 12. RAG QUEEN

LONHRO PLATE (Race 2)

Keen to take on Anode who looks awfully short. Beat nothing on debut and recent trials have been plain. Celerity takes her place here after Godolphin decided against the trip south for the Diamond Prelude. The fact they had her nommed alone speaks volumes and she was well in the market when scratched at the gates in the Widden last week. Wide draw to contend with here but loved her trials and looks to have some class about her. Castanya was the other horse who interested me. Likely to get back from the draw but she was very good when clear and chasing Switzerland on debut. If they’re coming down the middle, she can be in the finish. Smaller bets on Celerity and Castanya due to there maps.

Backing – 8. CELERITY & 7. CASTANYA

FEATURES

G1 Thousand Guineas – 3. SKYBIRD – Rode for luck and got it at Moonee Valley but the win was of a good horse and maintained her unbeaten record. Will need some luck from the inside draw here but she easily looks the horse with the most upside and this a target.

G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes – 3. STRAIGHT ACER – Perhaps the run of the day last start in the Golden Eagle when back and wide on a fence dominated day. Super record at this trip and maps ideally with the in-form M Zahra hopping aboard. Quite keen on him running a race at $8/$9.

CAULFIELD Race 6 – 2. BRAVE MEAD – Giving another chance after he was somewhat disappointing at Flemington. Maybe didn’t see out the mile so back to 1400m a positive and just think he is a better horse than the favourite. Zahra gets back on and with good tempo here, he can finish over the top.

NEWCASTLE Race 1 – 1. GRAM & 4. EFHARISTO – Taking the Godolphin bracket here in a race that looks to lack substance at the top of the market. Gram has trialled up stylishly on two occasions and liked the improvement of Efharisto from his first to his second. The 900m perhaps against them but think the market has to congest and against 2 & 5.

NEWCASTLE Race 6 – 2. STOCKMAN & 5. STROKE OF LUCK – Another bracket play and keen to be with these two runners after good showings in the Rosehill Cup. That looks the clear lead-up and both horses unsuited there when racing away from the rails on the inside advantaged day. Both suited out in trip and good odds at $8 each of two.

NEWCASTLE Race 9 – 11. TAVI TIME – Trialled up superbly this preparation and was well backed first up when given a bye. This looks a real set up job for the Lees camp on the home track and suited out to the mile. Very keen.

NEWCASTLE Race 10 – 6. PHEARSON – Unlucky first up and then very good the other day at Goulburn when only just collared late by a good horse in Grebeni. Won’t get total control here but hoping can slide across from the wide draw and stalk 1 and 4 into the race. Going well. Won’t be losing on Marnix either who savaged the line first up and looks underrated by the market.

1.GOLD TRIP
2022 Melbourne Cup winner, who returns looking to become just the fourth horse in history to win back-to-back Cups. Absolutely flying this prep, with a big win in the Turnbull before two perfect tune ups in the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate. Carries the top weight again, but it’s a congested weight scale this year and he’s drawn nicely for an economical run with that man McDonald going aboard. Loves Flemington. Obvious claims but does seem short enough in early markets.  

2. ALENQUER
Arrived on Australian shores early this year with a handy CV, being a previous Gold Cup winner and a starter in last year’s Arc De Triomphe, where he finished midfield. Warmed up for this by hitting the line solidly in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time out (fastest last 200m sectional of the race). Not sure that’s the A1 form but it does appear he is looking for more ground now. Would be a fairytale finish for Damien Oliver riding in his final Melbourne Cup but would need to improve significantly to be in the finish. .    

3. WITHOUT A FIGHT
I’m quite bullish on the Caulfield Cup winner, who’s had a faultless preparation and a fantastic season after racing into form over the QLD winter carnival. Question marks on his staying ability at two mile after failing last year, but much more suited on dry ground, and his late strength at the end of a brutally run Caulfield Cup was telling. More acclimatised now and not hard to predict further improvement third up. Zahra sticks. Can claim the Cups double. .    

4. BREAKUP
Japanese stayer who was very solidly supported $15-$10 in the Caulfield Cup in what was a good pipe opener for Tuesday. Looked flat late but sat handy enough to a good speed and dragged the winner into the race. Have to respect the Japanese when they travel their horses, and he looks one of only a handful of proper stayers in the race. Couple that with his second up record which is very good, and I think you can make a strong case. Question marks on where he gets too from the draw but there’s no doubt I want him on my side at $18.

5. VAUBAN
Long time Cup favourite who’s more commonly seen over the jumps, being a three-time Group 1 winning hurdler in Ireland. Willie Mullins brings this gelding to Australia in good form, winning impressively over the Royal Ascot carnival before claiming a Group 3 at his latest outing. Understandable hype around him and from all reports he couldn’t have worked any better. Looks incredibly short though for me and at the price I’ll be taking him on heavily.       

6. SOULCOMBE
Can Moreira get him out the gates? That aspect alone looks crucial to this horse’s chances after blown starts have cost him dearly in the Turnbull and the Caufield Cup. Hit the line super in both and been sectionally terrific in all four starts this prep. A low draw gives him the chance to settle closer and if he can, he looks awfully dangerous. No issues at 3200m and back to Flemington is a real tick. Hard to totally trust but looks a strong winning chance.     

7. ABSURDE
Second of the Willie Mullins Irish raiders who was a winner of the Ebor Handicap before making his way to Melbourne. Lightly raced with just 15 starts, he ran second to Vauban at Royal Ascot ($6 SP) so you can easily tie him in despite the losing margin. That SP alone gives him claims and he’s drawn well here with a world class rider in Zac Purton aboard. Profiles as another horse that will stay all day and as such, I think some value at his current quote.

8. RIGHT YOU ARE
Consistent middle-distance type for the all-conquering Maher/Eustace team who was very solid in the Caulfield Cup running into 5th at $41. Loves it at Flemington, having only missed a place once in six starts at the course. With that said, he does look a step below some of the better credentialled runners and this will be his first go at 3200m. Runs well but outclassed.     

9. VOW & DECLARE
Cup winner of 2019 returning for his fourth tilt at the great race. Absolute credit to Danny O’Brien and the team who continue to race him soundly after he looked gone a few years ago. Showed his toughness again this prep with closing efforts in the Might and Power and the MV Gold Cup. The latter he was caught three wide the trip but still hit the line strongly. Drops 1.5kg from last year. As tough as old boots and whilst I struggle to see him winning, he’s hard to knock and one to look at for top 10 players.

10. CLEVELAND
Targeted betting move for him late in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and the punters duly saluted after McDonald lifted him over the line. Solid in Sydney prior to that with grinding efforts in the Metrop and St Leger. Negatively weighted here and drawn the carpark in 23. Not for me.

11. ASHRUN
Had three years off the scene due to injury after last being seen as a starter in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, where he ran very credibly as a $26 chance. Have been quite taken with his efforts in the Bart Cummings, making up good ground on an on-pace dominated day. Then at Geelong, where he was unsuited by a sit sprint tempo. Would not surprise at $41 and can add juice to exotics.

12. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR
Ran a very sound race last year when finding the line from a long way back. Failed to recapture that form this time in however and been well beaten in his four starts this preparation. Lacks the turn of foot I think to be competitive, and the negative racing pattern makes it hard.

13. OKITA SOUSHI
Stable representative for Joseph O’Brien, who has tasted great success in the Cup in recent times.
Like Vauban, was a winner at the Royal Ascot carnival in the Duke of Edinburgh before failing in the Irish St Leger. Must be said his Caulfield Cup run was flat, racing towards the rear and failing to make much of an impression after coming off the bit a long way from home. Hard to have.

14. SHERAZ
Sydney Cup placegetter from last year who’s struggled to recapture any form in 2023. Down the track placings in the Bart Cummings and MV Gold Cup at his latest and I think needs wet ground to find his best. Won’t be featuring here.

15. LASTOTCHKA
Interesting French import who joins the Price/Kent Jnr yard for the Australian Bloodstock juggernaut. Looks a pint-sized mare but her international form reads quiet well and is a winner at 3100m at her latest. Everything out of the camp is very positive and gets the services of Craig Williams with just 51kg. Drawn out but can roll forward and with luck past the post the first time, she can certainly run a race. Overs.

16. MAGICAL LAGOON
Failed to capture any form in two preparations in Australia now for Chris Waller. Rolled forward in the Geelong Cup and afforded every possible on a soft tempo when collared in the shadows. Other horses open to more improvement out of that and just does not have any ratings that would be competitive here.

17. MILITARY MISSION
Consistent galloper for the in-form Waterhouse/Bott yard who cemented a Cup start with a stylish win in the Herbert Power. That form does look B grade with the 2nd placegetter United Nations since failing on Derby Day. Drawn for a nice run and very fit but has to go to a new level.

18. SERPENTINE
One of the speed influences in the race who’s been solid this time in without winning. Nice foundation 4th up after three runs at 2400/2500m and gets some weight relief with just 51kg. Another I see struggling to win the race but can improve.

19. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE
Jumped out of the ground in the Autumn when narrowly beaten in the AJC Derby. Lacklustre this prep after being well supported in the Geelong Cup at his latest. Not the strongest form line for this in my opinion and making up the numbers on Tuesday.

20. MORE FELONS
Intriguing runner for the Waller stable who had his first Australian run at Geelong when closing intently out wide and against the race shape. Open to improvement 2nd up and has form over two mile in the UK. Finds Jamie Kah fresh off a Derby Day double but has come up with the visitors draw in 24. Likely ridden cold but with an expected hot tempo, I think he’ll be picking off a few late.

21. FUTURE HISTORY
Been up since June this horse but just continues to run through brick walls racing his way into the Cup with an all the way win in a solid rating Bart Cummings. Clearly relishing his racing and was very good again at Moonee Valley in the Gold Cup when racing wide for much of the race. Set for this and from a middle draw looks one of the better mapped runners in the race. Sense of timing about him and can only see him running well.

22. INTERPRETATION
Bendigo Cup winner on the quick back-up from Wednesday. Dropped right out of this race last year when starting $51 in the market. Lacks the depth of form for mine and one we’re happy to let punters on.

23. KALAPOUR
Rising seven-year-old who claimed this year’s Archer on Derby Day with a vintage front running ride from Damien Oliver. Deadset stayer but very one-paced and I think lacking the brilliance to win a Melbourne Cup.

24. TRUE MARVEL
Ran 2nd in this year’s Sydney Cup and looked the winner only to be run down late by Explosive Jack. Struggled this Spring being beaten a combined 18 lengths in his past two starts. Out of form.

Melbourne Cup Best Bets

1. WITHOUT A FIGHT
2. SOULCOMBE
3. LASTOTCHKA
4. BREAKUP