New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland have been outstanding on their home floor throughout the playoffs, and they’ll need that trend to continue after dropping the opening two games in New York.

The Cavs will still feel they should be returning home with the series tied after blowing a 22-point lead late in Game 1.

Now facing a 0-2 deficit, Game 3 becomes a must-win if Cleveland are to keep their NBA Finals hopes alive.

Leg 1 – Mikal Bridges Over 13.5 Points

Mikal Bridges had a difficult start to the playoffs and struggled badly during the Atlanta series, but his form has improved significantly over the last two weeks.

Bridges is averaging 18.7 points across his last seven games and has cleared this line in six of those appearances.

That includes both games against Cleveland in this series.

The Cavaliers adjusted heavily toward stopping Jalen Brunson in Game 2, repeatedly over-helping and forcing the ball out of his hands.

As a result, Bridges benefited with 19 points while finding more open looks in the half court.

Leg 2 – Jarrett Allen 10+ Points

Jarrett Allen doesn’t need a massive scoring night to clear this line.

The Cleveland centre has scored double-digit points in nine of his last 11 games, with one of the misses coming in a game where he played just 18 minutes.

Allen has now reached 10+ points in five consecutive games and draws a favourable matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns inside.

On Cleveland’s home floor, expect the Cavaliers to establish Allen early around the rim.

Leg 3 – Jalen Brunson 6+ Assists

Cleveland’s defensive strategy in Game 2 created plenty of assist opportunities for Jalen Brunson.

The Knicks star finished with 14 assists as the Cavs repeatedly trapped him and forced the ball into the hands of New York’s secondary scorers.

Brunson isn’t naturally a huge assist producer, but his recent numbers have still been very solid.

Across his last 25 games, he’s averaging 7.5 assists and has recorded 6+ assists in seven of his last eight outings.

Given the Cavs are likely to maintain the same defensive approach, another strong playmaking game looks likely.

Same Game Multi

Bridges Over 13.5 Points / Allen 10+ Points / Brunson 6+ Assists = $3.40

Value Bet

When Cleveland fell behind 2-0 against Detroit earlier this postseason, Donovan Mitchell responded with massive performances on his home court.

He dropped 35 points in Game 3 before backing it up with 43 in Game 4.

Mitchell has now scored 30+ points in six of his last nine home games and has still played well despite Cleveland’s 0-2 deficit in this series.

After averaging 27.5 points across the opening two games against New York, expect Mitchell to take over offensively in Game 3.

Donovan Mitchell 30+ Points @ $2.40

OKC Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

The Thunder responded strongly in Game 2 to level the series, but now face a major hurdle heading into San Antonio.

Jalen Williams is expected to miss after suffering another hamstring injury, which leaves a significant hole in OKC’s offense and secondary playmaking.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are hopeful both De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper will be available, giving San Antonio a potential edge entering their first home game of the series.

Leg 1 – Victor Wembanyama 14+ Rebounds

Oklahoma City have tried multiple defensive matchups on Wembanyama throughout the series, often landing on Alex Caruso as the primary defender.

While that has helped limit some of Wemby’s scoring efficiency, it has opened the door for him to dominate the glass.

The Spurs superstar has already pulled down 14 offensive rebounds across the first two games and is averaging an absurd 20.5 rebounds for the series.

With San Antonio eager to make a statement at home, expect massive minutes once again for Wembanyama and another huge rebounding performance.

Leg 2 – Jared McCain Over 7.5 Points

Jared McCain continues to prove a brilliant mid-season pickup for Oklahoma City.

The former 76er’s shooting and floor spacing become even more important if Jalen Williams is unavailable.

McCain played 26 minutes in Game 2 and finished with 12 points despite shooting just 4-for-14 from the field.

The volume is what matters here.

He attempted the second most shots for OKC in Game 2, and if he sees similar usage again, clearing this points line should be very achievable.

Leg 3 – Stephon Castle 15+ Points

Castle continues to emerge as one of San Antonio’s most reliable offensive weapons during this playoff run.

The rookie guard backed it up again in Game 2 with 25 points and continues to thrive with the ball in his hands.

Castle has now scored 15+ points in 12 of his last 13 games.

Even if Fox returns, San Antonio are unlikely to move away from the current offensive structure that has worked so effectively throughout the playoffs.

Same Game Multi

Wembanyama 14+ Rebounds / McCain Over 7.5 Points / Castle 15+ Points = $4.20

Value Bet

San Antonio’s defensive approach against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been very clear throughout the opening two games.

The Spurs are aggressively collapsing on every drive, often sending Wembanyama across to force the ball out of SGA’s hands.

That strategy has created plenty of playmaking opportunities.

Gilgeous-Alexander recorded 12 assists in Game 1 and followed it with nine in Game 2.

With Williams likely sidelined, Oklahoma City may rely even more heavily on SGA’s creation, which should continue generating assist chances.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 10+ Assists @ $2.90

San Antonio Spurs vs OKC Thunder

Game 1 between the Spurs and Thunder delivered one of the best playoff games of the season, with San Antonio holding on in double overtime on the road.

Now the pressure shifts to Oklahoma City.

The Thunder must make major adjustments, particularly around generating cleaner offensive looks for MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Spurs face the challenge of managing heavy minutes after several starters pushed beyond 44 minutes in the opener.

Leg 1 – Thunder

Expect a strong response from Oklahoma City after dropping Game 1 at home.

The Thunder should have taken plenty away from the double-overtime loss, and historically these spots tend to favour the higher seed bouncing back hard in Game 2.

San Antonio leaned heavily on their starters in the opener, with five players logging at least 44 minutes.

Teams that steal an early road win in a playoff series will often subtly prioritise Game 3 at home, especially after a physically draining opener like this.

Oklahoma City should come out with far greater urgency and intensity here.

Leg 2 – Chet Holmgren Under 13.5 Points

The Thunder can bounce back without needing a big scoring game from Chet Holmgren.

Victor Wembanyama remains an extremely difficult matchup for Holmgren due to his ability to contest perimeter shots while still protecting the paint.

Across five meetings with San Antonio this season, Holmgren is averaging just 10 points per game.

He has also failed to clear 13.5 points in four straight games against the Spurs, missing double figures in three of those contests.

Unless Oklahoma City drastically changes his role offensively, this still looks like a difficult matchup for him to score efficiently.

Leg 3 – Jalen Williams 15+ Points

Jalen Williams looked like Oklahoma City’s most reliable offensive option in Game 1.

Fresh off a hamstring injury, Williams moved freely and finished with 26 points, consistently attacking gaps in San Antonio’s defence.

While Alex Caruso also had an explosive offensive game, it feels much more sustainable for Williams to maintain this scoring output moving forward.

Williams has scored 15+ points in 16 of his last 20 games, including seven of his last eight.

He should once again play a major role offensively in Game 2.

Same Game Multi

Thunder / Holmgren Under 13.5 Points / Jalen Williams 15+ Points = $3.60

Value Bet

Keldon Johnson could quietly benefit from the physical toll Game 1 placed on San Antonio’s starters.

Johnson played 22 minutes in the opener and there’s a strong chance those minutes increase slightly in Game 2 as the Spurs try to preserve energy for Games 3 and 4 back in San Antonio.

He knocked down three triples in Game 1 and has historically enjoyed this matchup against Oklahoma City.

Johnson also made four threes in the Spurs’ previous meeting with OKC, while earlier this season he had another game where he buried five triples against them.

With defensive attention focused heavily on Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, Johnson should continue getting quality catch-and-shoot looks from deep.

Keldon Johnson 2+ 3PM @ $3.30

San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves

The Spurs made a huge statement in Game 5 with a dominant performance against Minnesota.

Now the series heads back to Minnesota, but the task facing the Timberwolves looks increasingly difficult. San Antonio completely controlled the tempo last game, while Minnesota’s rotation continues to thin out deeper into the series.

Leg 1 – Spurs

With Oklahoma City already waiting in the Western Conference Finals, the Spurs cannot afford to let this series drift to a Game 7.

Game 5 showed San Antonio are currently the superior side. Minnesota simply don’t have the same depth anymore following Donte DiVincenzo’s season-ending injury.

The Spurs have done an excellent job containing Julius Randle using smaller defenders, while aggressively trapping Anthony Edwards every chance they get.

Game 1 came with some shooting variance, while Game 4 was heavily impacted by Victor Wembanyama’s ejection. Neither scenario feels likely to repeat here.

San Antonio should finish the series on the road.

Leg 2 – Naz Reid Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds

Naz Reid shapes as Minnesota’s best chance of extending this series.

He brings physicality defensively while also stretching the floor offensively, and should continue eating into both Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle’s minutes.

Reid is averaging 21.4 combined points and rebounds this series, but importantly he has cleared this line in both home games.

Across those two games in Minnesota, Reid has averaged 16.5 points and nine rebounds.

Expect his minutes to push into the low 30s again in what should be a more competitive contest than Game 5.

Leg 3 – Ayo Dosunmu 10+ Points

The Spurs appear to have found a blueprint defensively by trapping Anthony Edwards aggressively and forcing other Timberwolves players to beat them.

That should once again open scoring opportunities for Ayo Dosunmu.

Dosunmu is averaging 16.2 points per game this postseason and has scored 10+ points in seven of his nine playoff games.

One miss came when he exited early through injury, while the other came in just 22 minutes.

Minnesota’s shortened rotation means Dosunmu should play 30+ minutes again, and when he gets that level of court time he generally clears this line comfortably.

Same Game Multi

Spurs / Reid Over 19.5 PR / Dosunmu 10+ Points = $3.75

Value Bet

Dylan Harper continues to show exactly why he was selected second overall in last year’s NBA Draft.

His scoring gets plenty of attention, but his rebounding ability for a guard his size has been just as impressive.

Harper is averaging 6.4 rebounds per game this series, including 10 boards in Game 5 despite playing only 25 minutes.

His per-36 rebound numbers in the series sit at 9.3 rebounds per game.

Harper has recorded 6+ rebounds in three of the five games this series, and in San Antonio’s three wins he is averaging seven rebounds per contest.

Expect his minutes to once again sit in the high 20s, giving him another strong chance to impact the glass.

Dylan Harper 6+ Rebounds @ $3.50

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons

We’re back in Detroit for Game 5, with the series locked at 2-2 and the home team yet to lose.

The concern is Cleveland’s road form. The Cavaliers enter this having won the last two games, but they are still yet to record a road win from five attempts this post-season.

Can they sneak Game 5 and head back to Cleveland with a chance to book their place in the Eastern Conference Finals, or will Detroit again prove too strong at home?

Leg 1 – Pistons -3.5

The Cavaliers have been so poor on the road this post-season that it’s hard to see them flipping the script in Game 5.

Across five road playoff games, Cleveland are 0-5 and have failed to cover the spread in all five.

Detroit, meanwhile, have covered in four of their last five home games this post-season and beat Cleveland by 10 points in both Games 1 and 2 of this series.

Evan Mobley, James Harden and Max Strus all have net ratings worse than -14 across the two road games in this matchup, making this a huge ask for the Cavs.

Leg 2 – Jalen Duren 8+ Rebounds

The last two games have been concerning for Duren, who was so dominant during the regular season but has struggled at times in the playoffs.

That said, his home numbers this post-season are far stronger than his road numbers.

In Detroit, Duren is averaging 10.3 rebounds across six playoff games, hitting 8+ in his last five and 10+ in his last three.

Expect a bounce back from the Pistons centre, at least on the glass.

Leg 3 – Dean Wade Over 2.5 Rebounds

Wade is averaging 24 minutes per game this post-season, and while his minutes dipped slightly in Games 3 and 4, he still has a role to play for Cleveland.

He also owns the best road playoff net rating of any Cavalier this post-season, one of only two Cleveland players with a positive mark.

Wade has recorded over 2.5 rebounds in 10 of his 11 playoff games, averaging four boards per game.

As one of Cleveland’s more reliable road performers, he should see enough minutes to clear this line again.

Same Game Multi

Pistons -3.5 / Duren 8+ Rebounds / Wade Over 2.5 Rebounds = $4.00

Value Bet – Jaylon Tyson 4+ Rebounds @ $4.50

With Strus, Harden, Mobley and Merrill all struggling badly on the road in this series, Jaylon Tyson could see more opportunity in Game 5.

He played just eight minutes in Game 4, but his rebounding profile remains strong.

Tyson is averaging eight rebounds per 36 minutes this post-season and has impacted the glass in road playoff games.

Across five road games, he is averaging 4.2 rebounds in 18.4 minutes per game, hitting 4+ rebounds in four of those matches, including each of his last four.

Kenny Atkinson may need to roll the dice with Tyson, and if he gets the minutes, this is a strong price for 4+ boards.

OKC Thunder vs LA Lakers

Despite missing Luka Doncic, the Lakers have made this series far more competitive than many expected through the opening two games.

However, Oklahoma City’s depth continues to create problems for LA, even with Jalen Williams sidelined.

It also feels like only a matter of time before Shai Gilgeous-Alexander fully explodes offensively after a relatively quiet start to the series.

Leg 1 – Ajay Mitchell 15+ Points

Mitchell’s role has expanded massively in the absence of Jalen Williams and he has delivered every time.

The Thunder guard is averaging 19 points across the first two games of this series and has now scored 15+ points in four straight games without Williams.

When playing 30+ minutes this season, Mitchell averages 17.2 points per game and has cleared 15+ in 12 of 17 appearances.

With his confidence growing and OKC needing additional scoring, he looks set for another big outing.

Leg 2 – Deandre Ayton 8+ Rebounds

Ayton’s offensive game remains frustrating, but his rebounding work has been outstanding lately.

The Lakers centre is averaging 10.8 rebounds across his last nine games and has recorded double-digit boards in seven of those contests.

What makes that stretch more impressive is that much of it came against Houston, one of the toughest rebounding matchups for centres all season.

Ayton has already pulled down 10 and 12 rebounds respectively in the opening two games against OKC, making eight rebounds look very achievable again.

Leg 3 – Chet Holmgren 15+ Points

Holmgren has elevated himself into a genuine second scoring option for Oklahoma City with Williams unavailable.

The versatile big man is averaging 23 points per game through the first two games of the series and has scored 20+ in both outings.

More broadly, Holmgren has now cleared 15+ points in 11 of his last 12 games without Jalen Williams, averaging 19.3 points over that stretch.

The Lakers continue to struggle containing his size and mobility combination.

Same Game Multi

Mitchell 15+ Points / Holmgren 15+ Points / Ayton 8+ Rebounds = $3.50

Value Bet – Jared McCain 3+ 3PM @ $4.75

McCain is doing exactly what Oklahoma City brought him in to provide — instant perimeter shooting.

The rookie has been lights out from deep during this series, knocking down 4+ triples in both Games 1 and 2 against the Lakers.

His recent performances have pushed him ahead of Aaron Wiggins in the rotation, and there’s every chance he continues eating into Isaiah Joe’s minutes as the series progresses.

If the Lakers continue collapsing defensively around SGA and Holmgren, McCain should again get plenty of clean perimeter looks.

Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks

The Knicks crushed the 76ers in the series opener, but the context around Philadelphia’s performance is important.

The Sixers entered Game 1 fresh off a gruelling seven-game series win over Boston, with their starters logging massive minutes across the final stretch of that series.

Nick Nurse waved the white flag early in the blowout and managed minutes accordingly. Expect Philadelphia to bounce back with far greater intensity here.

Leg 1 – Karl-Anthony Towns Over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists

Karl-Anthony Towns’ role has completely evolved during this Knicks playoff run.

Across the postseason, Towns is averaging 10.6 rebounds and six assists per game, already clearing this line comfortably.

But the bigger story is the tactical adjustment New York has made since trailing Atlanta 2-1 earlier in the playoffs.

The Knicks have increasingly used Towns as a facilitator at the top of the floor in a five-out system, running plenty of pindown and flow action through him. Since Game 4 of that series, Towns has averaged 18.3 rebounds plus assists, with a monstrous 23.6 per-36 figure.

Leg 2 – OG Anunoby 15+ Points

Anunoby has been outstanding this postseason and continues to thrive alongside the Knicks’ spacing-heavy offense.

OG is averaging 21 points per game in the playoffs, hitting 15+ points in six of his seven postseason appearances.

His outside shooting has been elite too, knocking down triples at just under 60%.

He scored 18 points in only 30 minutes during Game 1 and should push closer to 36 minutes in what projects as a far tighter contest.

Leg 3 – Tyrese Maxey 20+ Points

Maxey’s quiet Game 1 doesn’t concern me.

The fatigue factor after the Boston series was obvious, and Philadelphia simply never looked competitive once the game got away from them.

Despite the poor opener, Maxey is still averaging 25.1 points per game this postseason and has cleared 20+ points in seven of eight playoff games.

The lone miss came in Game 1 where he scored 13 points in just 26 minutes. Expect that playing time to jump significantly in Game 2.

Same Game Multi

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 15.5 RA / OG Anunoby 15+ Points / Tyrese Maxey 20+ Points = $4.15

Value Bet – Karl-Anthony Towns 6+ Assists @ $2.75

As mentioned above, Towns’ emergence as a distributor has transformed New York’s offense.

Across the last four playoff games, KAT is averaging eight assists per game and has recorded 6+ assists in all four.

That includes Game 1 against Philadelphia despite playing only 20 minutes in the blowout.

If this game stays competitive, expect Towns to play around 34 minutes which creates genuine upside for a huge assist total. The 6+ market looks excellent value, while a triple-double at $16 is certainly worth consideration too.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

No one saw this going the distance, but momentum is firmly with Philadelphia.

Tatum looks banged up, Embiid has returned with huge impact, and Boston’s offense has stalled at the worst time.

Will Joe Mazzulla find answers, or does the 76ers’ surge continue with a shock series win?

Leg 1 – Tyrese Maxey Over 23.5 Points

Maxey is playing massive minutes and that won’t change in a Game 7.

He’s averaging 26.3 points this series and has cleared this line in four of six games, including 30 in Game 6.

With potential for near 40+ minutes again, this line looks very gettable.

Leg 2 – Jayson Tatum 10+ Rebounds

Expect Boston to go smaller, which should push Tatum into more time at centre.

He’s averaging 10.7 rebounds this series and has hit 10+ in four of six games, including 16 and 11 in the last two.

If he logs heavy minutes again, double-digit boards should follow.

Leg 3 – Kelly Oubre 4+ Rebounds

Oubre’s role has been critical with his two-way impact.

He’s averaging 6.2 rebounds this series and has cleared 4+ in all six games.

With another heavy minutes load expected, this remains a strong play.

Same Game Multi

Maxey Over 23.5 Points / Tatum 10+ Rebounds / Oubre 4+ Rebounds = $3.50

Value Bet – Joel Embiid 8+ Assists @ $6.25

Embiid has completely changed this series since returning, particularly as a facilitator.

He’s averaging 7.3 assists across his three games and has hit 6+ in all of them.

He’s cleared 8+ in the last two, making this a strong value look if Game 7 stays competitive.

LA Lakers @ Houston Rockets

It was 3-0 Lakers — now we’re back in Houston with all the momentum on the Rockets’ side.

Austin Reaves returns for LA, while Kevin Durant remains out for Houston, but that didn’t slow them in Game 5. With Ime Udoka tightening the rotation, the Rockets are well placed to square the series.

Leg 1 – Rui Hachimura 10+ Points

Hachimura continues to log heavy minutes and that won’t change in a closeout game.

He’s averaging 14.8 points this series and has hit double figures in all five games.

Across his last 13 games, he’s cleared 10+ in 12 of them. With around 40 minutes expected, he should get there again.

Leg 2 – Marcus Smart Over 2.5 Assists

Reaves’ return may lower usage slightly, but Smart’s role as a facilitator remains intact.

Despite only two assists in Game 5, he recorded 3+ assists in the previous four games alongside LeBron and Reaves, including two games with 6+.

He should bounce back here.

Leg 3 – Reed Sheppard 4+ Assists

With Durant out, Sheppard’s minutes and responsibility increase significantly.

He averages 5.3 assists without KD and has hit 4+ in seven of eight games in that scenario.

He had six assists in Game 5 and should be heavily involved again.

Same Game Multi

Hachimura 10+ Points / Smart Over 2.5 Assists / Sheppard 4+ Assists = $3.20

Value Bet – Deandre Ayton 15+ Points @ $2.75

Ayton is always a rollercoaster, but the price looks solid based on recent output.

He’s coming off 18 points in Game 4 and 19 in Game 5, showing improved involvement offensively.

There’s risk, but on current form this is a worthwhile play.

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Most assume the Cavs will head back to Cleveland and simply get it done, but there are a few red flags from their last two games.

Evan Mobley has been poor, while James Harden enters Game 5 with 15 turnovers across his last two games. Do we even need to mention Harden’s playoff record?

The Raptors are well coached and have found something in this series. Can they cause a huge Game 5 upset and head back to Toronto with a chance to close it out?

Leg 1 – Raptors +8.5

Even though this series has so far gone the way of the home team, Toronto has the tools to keep this close and potentially cause a major upset.

There are some clear concerns for Cleveland. Mobley has been underwhelming, averaging 16.3 points and 7.5 rebounds with a series net rating of -7.3, while Mitchell and Harden both sit at just 1.4.

It is also hard to ignore Harden’s postseason history. With Toronto’s coaching edge and the rise of Collin Murray-Boyles, this should be competitive.

Leg 2 – RJ Barrett 15+ Points

Barrett is having a strong series, averaging 24.3 points per game.

The minutes, usage and shot attempts have been there throughout, and he has hit 15+ points in all four games, including 20+ in three of them.

He should clear this mark again in Game 5.

Leg 3 – Collin Murray-Boyles Over 12.5 Points

Murray-Boyles has been a revelation for Toronto, leapfrogging both Poeltl and Mamu for centre minutes.

He is averaging 17 points per game in this series, covering this line in all four games and scoring 15+ in each of the last three.

He has clearly become a difficult matchup for Cleveland, and if Toronto gives him around 30 minutes again, he should cover this points line.

Same Game Multi

Toronto +8.5 / Barrett 15+ Points / Murray-Boyles Over 12.5 Points = $3.60

Value Bet – Collin Murray-Boyles 25+ PR @ $3.20

Murray-Boyles is averaging 17 points per game this series, but he has also been a presence on the glass.

The rookie is averaging 7.3 rebounds, giving him an average PR of 24.3 across the series.

Most encouragingly, he has cleared this line in the last two games, which has coincided with his minutes increasing to 27-28. He could play even more in Game 5.