Canterbury Bulldogs vs Melbourne Storm

The Bulldogs enter this clash on a five-game losing streak, conceding an alarming average of 36 points per game during that stretch.

Last week, Canterbury were comfortably beaten 38-16 by the Sharks.

Melbourne were dealing with their own crisis not long ago after suffering a historic seven-game losing streak, but the Storm have steadied with consecutive wins over the Tigers and Eels.

Leg 1 – Storm to Win

Melbourne’s Origin absentees will dominate discussion heading into this clash, with Cameron Munster, Harry Grant and Trent Loiero all unavailable.

However, Stephen Crichton’s absence may prove even more significant.

Canterbury are already struggling badly in attack, averaging just 13 points across their last four matches.

Without their captain and attacking spark, it’s difficult to see where the Bulldogs generate enough points to seriously challenge Melbourne.

The Storm should control this contest.

Leg 2 – Under 48.5 Points Total

The recent history between these clubs strongly points toward a lower-scoring game.

The last five meetings between Melbourne and Canterbury have all finished under this total points line.

With the Bulldogs struggling to score consistently and Melbourne missing key spine players due to Origin, another grinding contest looks likely.

Leg 3 – Sualauvi Fa’alogo to Score

Fa’alogo continues to produce whenever he gets opportunities for Melbourne.

The exciting Storm fullback has scored 12 tries in 11 appearances this season, crossing in all but two matches.

Against a Bulldogs defence currently leaking points at an alarming rate, Fa’alogo should find opportunities once again.

Same Game Multi

Storm to Win / Under 48.5 Points / Fa’alogo to Score = $6.25

Value Bet

When Melbourne win in 2026, they’ve generally done it in dominant fashion.

The Storm’s four victories this season have come by margins of 48, 26, 28 and 26 points.

With Canterbury struggling defensively and Melbourne beginning to rebuild confidence following consecutive wins, another comfortable result could be looming.

Storm 13+ @ $4.85

Canberra Raiders vs Dolphins

Canberra have been patchy throughout 2026, winning four of their opening 10 matches to sit 12th on the ladder.

Most recently, the Raiders fell to Penrith after previously taking care of the Titans.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, have been one of the form teams in the competition over the last month.

Since their heavy Round 5 loss to Manly, they’ve pushed the competition’s top sides before putting together a three-game winning streak.

But form may not matter as much as team availability in this contest.

Both sides have been hit hard by State of Origin selections and injuries. Canberra lose Hudson Young and Ethan Strange, while the Dolphins are without Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Selwyn Cobbo, Kodi Nikorima and several other key contributors.

Leg 1 – Each Team Under 29.5 Points

With both teams heavily reshuffled, this shapes as a scrappy and relatively low-scoring game.

Canberra already tend to play grinding contests at home, averaging just 19 points per game in the nation’s capital this season.

The Dolphins have been dangerous offensively in 2026, but without the likes of Tabuai-Fidow and Cobbo, they may need to rely more heavily on defence and field position.

Neither side looks close to full attacking strength.

Leg 2 – Second Half Highest Scoring

With so many new combinations on the field, it could take time for both attacks to settle into rhythm.

That points toward a slower opening before the game opens up later.

Fatigue should also play a factor, especially given both teams have regularly conceded points late in matches this season.

The second half shapes as the higher-scoring period.

Leg 3 – Kaeo Weekes to Score

Canberra will need a major attacking performance from Kaeo Weekes in the absence of several key playmakers.

The Raiders fullback has been in excellent try-scoring form, crossing five times in his last five matches.

Against a rejigged Dolphins defensive line, Weekes should get opportunities around the ruck and in broken play.

Same Game Multi

Each Team Under 29.5 Points / Second Half Highest Scoring / Weekes to Score = $8.50

Value Bet

Jamayne Isaako continues to be one of the hottest try-scorers in the competition.

The Dolphins winger scored twice against the Warriors in Round 8 before following it up with a hat-trick against the Bulldogs two weeks later.

With Cobbo and Tabuai-Fidow unavailable, Isaako will shoulder an even bigger share of the Dolphins’ attacking opportunities.

Expect plenty of ball to head his way again on Thursday night.

Isaako 2+ Tries @ $3.20

New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos

New Zealand have exploded out of the blocks in 2026, winning seven of their first nine games and sitting second on the ladder behind Penrith.

The Warriors enter Magic Round off the back of a bye, having won four consecutive matches beforehand.

Brisbane have been more inconsistent, losing their last two against the Roosters and Sea Eagles after previously winning four of five.

Leg 1 – Under 50.5 Points Total

The Warriors are built around a forward pack capable of grinding teams down defensively.

James Fisher-Harris, Mitchell Barnett and Jackson Ford have helped turn New Zealand into one of the competition’s toughest defensive outfits, with only three Warriors games exceeding 50 total points this season.

Brisbane have shown similar trends, with just three of their 10 matches crossing this total in 2026.

This shapes as a physical contest rather than a shootout.

Leg 2 – Reece Walsh to Score

Walsh thrives in big moments, and Magic Round against his former club certainly qualifies.

The Broncos fullback has scored five tries in his last six appearances and boasts an outstanding record at Suncorp Stadium with seven tries in his last seven games there.

With the Warriors missing Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Walsh should find opportunities around the edges and through broken play.

Leg 3 – Dallin Watene-Zelezniak to Score

With several Warriors stars sidelined, expect Watene-Zelezniak to become even more heavily involved.

The winger has scored eight tries in his last five matches and hasn’t gone tryless since Round 4.

New Zealand will continue to rely heavily on his finishing ability, and he rarely disappoints.

Same Game Multi

Under 50.5 Total Points / Walsh to Score / Watene-Zelezniak to Score = $4.10

Value Bet – Broncos 1-12 @ $3.50

The Warriors still have some questions to answer despite their ladder position.

Their last four wins have come against sides outside the top eight, while the last time they faced a genuine finals contender they were comfortably beaten.

Brisbane remain one of the competition’s most unpredictable teams, but with Adam Reynolds back steering the side around and a strong Suncorp crowd behind them, they are more than capable of causing an upset.

Back Broncos 1-12 @ $3.50 with betr

Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys

The Roosters are one of the NRL’s form teams right now, winning six straight after opening the season 1-2.

North Queensland have cooled slightly following their own five-match winning streak earlier in the year, coming off a narrow loss to Parramatta last round.

Leg 1 – Roosters 1-12

Sydney are riding the longest active winning streak in the competition and don’t look like slowing down any time soon.

Their attack is humming, built off elite completion rates and the outstanding form of James Tedesco.

That said, North Queensland won’t go away quietly and should have strong crowd support at Magic Round.

Expect a tight contest where the Roosters’ class proves the difference late.

Leg 2 – Over 46.5 Points Total

Both teams have been scoring heavily leading into this clash.

The Roosters have scored six or more tries in each of their last six matches, averaging 38.8 points per game during that stretch.

North Queensland have also consistently piled on points, scoring 28 or more in all but one game since Round 3.

Defensively, the Cowboys have leaked points too, conceding 30+ in four of their last five matches.

Everything points towards another high-scoring Magic Round contest.

Leg 3 – Daniel Tupou to Score

Tupou has cashed in on the Roosters’ attacking form, already scoring eight tries this season.

He has crossed in each of the last three rounds and continues to benefit from Sydney’s structured edge attack.

The veteran winger also gets a favourable matchup against Cowboys debutant Liam Sutton on the left edge.

Same Game Multi

Roosters 1-12 / Over 46.5 Total Points / Tupou to Score = $6.75

Value Bet – Cowboys to Win First Half @ $3.30

Sydney have developed a habit of starting slowly this season, losing the first half in three of their last six wins.

The Cowboys have had the opposite issue, fading late after strong starts, including last week against Parramatta where they led at halftime before falling away.

There’s also extra motivation for North Queensland with Jake Clifford and Griffin Neame both celebrating 100-game milestones.

Expect the Cowboys to come out fast.

Back Cowboys to Win First Half @ $3.30 with betr

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Dolphins

South Sydney have started 2026 surprisingly well, winning six of nine matches and coming into Round 11 off the back of a 36-12 win over Cronulla.

The Dolphins also arrive in strong form after dismantling the Bulldogs last Thursday, continuing a solid month where they’ve beaten Melbourne and pushed the competition’s top sides close.

Leg 1 – Over 54.5 Points Total

This is already the second meeting between these teams in 2026, with the first producing 70 points in South Sydney’s 40-30 victory back in Round 1.

The Rabbitohs have now scored 30 or more points six times this season, while the Dolphins piled on 44 points last week and have only been held below 18 once all year.

Everything points towards another high-scoring contest.

Leg 2 – Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to Score

Tabuai-Fidow remains one of the Dolphins’ biggest attacking threats, already scoring 58 tries for the club.

He hasn’t crossed in the last month, largely because Jamayne Isaako has dominated the scoring opportunities with six tries in that stretch.

Expect South Sydney to focus heavily on Isaako this week, which should create more opportunities for Tabuai-Fidow to find space.

Leg 3 – Selwyn Cobbo to Score

Cobbo has an outstanding record at Magic Round and should continue his try-scoring run here.

The Rabbitohs winger has scored six tries across four career Magic Round appearances and now gets a favourable matchup against inexperienced winger Bayleigh Bentley-Hape.

With South Sydney expected to create plenty of attacking chances, Cobbo should get opportunities to finish them.

Same Game Multi

Over 54.5 Total Points / Tabuai-Fidow to Score / Selwyn Cobbo to Score = $4.80

Value Bet – Latrell Mitchell 2+ Tries @ $4.00

When Latrell Mitchell gets on the scoreboard, he tends to do serious damage.

The Rabbitohs superstar has already produced three games with two or more tries this season, including braces against the Warriors and Bulldogs, plus a four-try haul against the Dragons in Round 7.

Given this matchup shapes as another shootout, Mitchell crossing twice again is firmly in play.

Back Latrell Mitchell 2+ Tries @ $4.00 with betr

Canberra Raiders vs Penrith Panthers

The Panthers haven’t been blowing teams away lately, but they continue to find ways to win.

Despite a scrappy month featuring a loss and two narrow victories, Penrith still sit atop the competition and enter this clash on a three-game winning streak.

Canberra’s recent form has mirrored Penrith’s in some ways, but their poor 1-4 start leaves them buried down in 13th position heading into Round 10.

Leg 1 – Panthers 1-12

The Raiders have actually won the last two meetings between these sides, and Penrith’s recent away performances suggest another close contest could be on the cards.

Canberra regain Hudson Young and Ethan Strange for this matchup, while confidence will be high after comfortably beating the Titans last week despite missing key personnel.

Penrith should still have enough class to grind out another victory, but expect this to be far tougher than the market suggests.

Leg 2 – Under 50.5 Total Points

Both teams have consistently featured in lower-scoring contests throughout 2026.

Six Raiders games this season have finished under 50.5 points including each of their last two.

The Panthers have also gone under this mark six times, with all but one of those occurring away from home.

The head-to-head history strongly supports the trend too, with seven of the last eight meetings between these clubs producing fewer than 50 total points.

Leg 3 – Thomas Jenkins to Score

Jenkins has cooled slightly over the past fortnight after his extraordinary start to the season, but the opportunities continue to come.

The Panthers winger still looks dangerous every time Penrith shift the ball to the edges, and after scoring 16 tries across the opening seven rounds, another feels imminent.

Same Game Multi

Panthers 1-12 / Under 50.5 Total Points / Jenkins to Score = $8.00

Value Bet – Simi Sasagi to Score @ $3.00

Sasagi has become one of Canberra’s biggest attacking threats over the last fortnight, crossing for three tries in his past two matches.

He was outstanding against the Titans last week, scoring twice while also running for 152 metres and producing two line breaks.

The powerful second-rower is running with confidence and should once again create opportunities against Penrith’s edge defence.

North Queensland Cowboys vs Parramatta Eels

The Cowboys continue to be one of the hardest teams to predict in 2026.

After a shaky start they rattled off four straight wins, suffered a heavy defeat, then bounced back with consecutive victories once again.

Parramatta have been far easier to read lately, losing five of their last six including heavy defeats to the Warriors and Sea Eagles.

Leg 1 – Cowboys 1-12

North Queensland deserve favouritism at home, but recent meetings between these clubs suggest this should stay close.

The Cowboys have beaten Parramatta just once in their last five clashes dating back to 2022, and even that was only by eight points.

Townsville gives them the edge here, but a tight victory feels the most likely outcome.

Leg 2 – Under 55.5 Total Points

The high total reflects how both teams have featured in shootouts this season.

However, this matchup traditionally trends heavily towards the under.

Incredibly, the last Cowboys vs Eels game to clear 55.5 total points came while Barack Obama was still President of the United States.

That’s 17 straight meetings staying under this mark.

Leg 3 – Scott Drinkwater to Score

Drinkwater has quietly hit top gear, scoring five tries across his last five appearances.

With Jeremiah Nanai sidelined, expect the Cowboys’ fullback to become even more involved around the football.

His support play alongside Jaxon Purdue and Braidon Burns has been excellent, and Parramatta’s edge defence remains vulnerable.

Same Game Multi

Cowboys 1-12 / Under 55.5 Total Points / Drinkwater to Score = $10.00

Value Bet – Braidon Burns Last Tryscorer @ $7.00

Burns has been one of North Queensland’s most dangerous finishers this season, crossing six times in eight matches.

Two of those tries have been the final try of the match, highlighting his ability to cash in late against tired defensive lines.

If this game stays tight deep into the second half, Burns should get another opportunity to finish things off.

Dolphins vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Despite being level on the ladder, the form lines of these teams are trending in opposite directions.

The Dolphins have improved significantly over the past month, pushing Penrith and the Warriors before comfortably beating Melbourne last week.

Canterbury, meanwhile, have dropped three straight following their upset win over the Panthers.

Leg 1 – Dolphins 1-12

With Viliame Kikau and Jake Turpin sidelined, the Bulldogs look vulnerable again.

The Dolphins regain Kodi Nikorima and Jeremy Marshall-King, adding experience and stability.

Confidence is growing within this side and after beating Canterbury for the first time last season, they can edge another close one here.

Leg 2 – Jamayne Isaako to Score

Isaako has scored every time he has faced the Bulldogs as a Dolphin.

He’s also in strong form with three tries across the last two rounds.

Canterbury continue to concede tries down their right edge and with Kikau missing, that side looks even more exposed.

Leg 3 – Both Teams Over 12.5 Points

Both teams have scored 12 or more points in every game this season.

The 12.5 line has been cleared in 13 of the combined 16 matches involving these sides in 2026.

Even if the Dolphins control the match, Canterbury should still contribute enough points.

Same Game Multi

Dolphins 1-12 / Isaako to Score / Both Teams Over 12.5 Points = $6.00

Value Bet – Matt Burton to Score @ $3.75

With injuries mounting, Canterbury will rely heavily on Burton for attacking spark.

This is also his 100th appearance for the club, adding extra motivation.

He has three tries from eight games this season and continues to profile as a strong value scorer in this matchup.

Penrith Panthers vs Manly Sea Eagles

Penrith sit atop the ladder with just one loss from eight matches, coming off a dominant 44-12 win over Newcastle.

Manly arrive in strong form themselves, riding a four-game winning streak after their coaching change, most recently defeating Parramatta 33-18.

Leg 1 – Panthers -12.5

Outside of a minor slip against the Bulldogs and a tighter win over the Dolphins, no side has been able to stay within 20 points of Penrith this season.

They’ve also dominated this matchup, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings against Manly.

The Sea Eagles did win the most recent clash, but that should only sharpen the Panthers’ focus here.

Leg 2 – Over 50.5 Points

Penrith are averaging 34.1 points per game this season, while Manly sit at 28.6.

Even if the Sea Eagles struggle to match that output, Penrith’s attack alone puts this total well within reach.

Manly’s recent wins have masked some defensive issues that could be exposed in this matchup.

Leg 3 – Dylan Edwards to Score

Edwards was outstanding last week, scoring a first-quarter hattrick.

He continues to benefit from Penrith’s dominant forward pack, constantly putting him in position to attack.

Up against a less experienced fullback, he should find opportunities again here.

Same Game Multi

Panthers -12.5 / Over 50.5 / Edwards to Score = $4.30

Value Bet – Reuben Garrick to Score @ $3.00

Garrick has been one of Manly’s most reliable attacking threats, scoring four tries across April.

His combination with Lehi Hopoate has created plenty of chances down the edge.

If Manly are to trouble Penrith, Garrick looms as their most likely finisher.

Sydney Roosters vs Brisbane Broncos

The Roosters looked sharp last week, putting the Dragons to the sword 62-16 for their fourth straight win.

Brisbane also impressed, beating the Bulldogs comprehensively despite a raft of injuries.

The Broncos regain Reece Walsh and Pat Carrigan for this clash, while Sydney remain unchanged.

Leg 1 – Broncos +4.5

Sydney are playing excellent footy and have dominated this matchup in recent years.

However, that big win over the Dragons could lead to a slight drop-off. Brisbane are building nicely and look close to their best again.

They can win this, but at the very least should keep it tight.

Leg 2 – Over 51.5 Points

Both sides are scoring heavily. The Broncos are averaging 27.5 points across their last four, while the Roosters are at 41.75.

There’s also scoring history here, with two of the last three meetings seeing one side crack 40 points.

With strong attacking units and favourable conditions, points should flow.

Leg 3 – Mark Nawaqanitawase to Score

Nawaqanitawase is in elite form, scoring multiple tries in three of his last four games.

He also has eight tries in his last five at Allianz Stadium, showing how dangerous he is at this venue.

With Walsh returning, expect plenty of aerial contests where Nawaqanitawase can capitalise.

Same Game Multi

Broncos +4.5 / Over 51.5 / Nawaqanitawase to Score = $5.25

Value Bet – Daniel Tupou First Try Scorer @ $8.00

The Roosters have started fast recently, scoring first twice and inside the opening quarter eight times across their last four matches.

Tupou has been a big part of that, crossing five times in that stretch.

He hasn’t landed first try scorer yet this season, but historically it’s been a strength of his and looks overdue here.