{"id":19780,"date":"2025-07-28T23:45:48","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T23:45:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=19780"},"modified":"2025-07-28T23:45:48","modified_gmt":"2025-07-28T23:45:48","slug":"afl-brownlow-predictor-round-20-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/afl-brownlow-predictor-round-20-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL Brownlow Predictor – Round 20 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Although Brownlow favourite Nick Daicos has kicked away from the chasing pack, we have a $21 chance as our best bet after Round 20.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Pos<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n

\n

Player<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n

\n

Club<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n

\n

Votes<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n

\n

Odds<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

N. Daicos<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Coll<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

26.75<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$1.75<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

N.Anderson<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

GC<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

21.25<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$7.00<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

C.Serong<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Fre<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20.75<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$21<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

M.Rowell<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

GC<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20.00<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$21<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Z.Butters<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

PA<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.50<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$67<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

B.Smith<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Gee<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

18.75<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$12<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

M.Holmes<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Gee<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

17.25<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$101<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

=8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

T.Green<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

GWS<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.75<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$26<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

=8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

I.Heeney<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Syd<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.75<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$151<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

=8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

H.McCluggage<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

BL<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.75<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$81<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/b><\/b><\/h2>\n

Matt Rowell @ $21<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

It might sound ridiculous, but if you\u2019re having a wager after Round 20, I\u2019d rather be on Matt Rowell at $21 than take the $1.75 for Nick Daicos.<\/p>\n

The Suns have a game in hand and finish with Richmond, Port Adelaide, Carlton and Essendon – four very winnable games. If Rowell keeps up this form, he could easily pull 10 votes in that stretch.<\/p>\n

Daicos is the rightful favourite, coming off a near-perfect game and sitting six votes clear on our tracker. But we saw this script in 2023, and with a month of footy left, $1.75 just doesn\u2019t appeal. This is purely a value play.<\/p>\n

\n

Lay<\/b><\/b><\/h2>\n

Jordan Dawson @ $5.50<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

We\u2019re laying Dawson again. I found 0.25 of a vote for him in the Showdown win over Port, but it\u2019s near-certain that Thilthorpe and Soligo take the top two votes.<\/p>\n

Even including that, Dawson doesn\u2019t make our top ten. He\u2019s drifted from $4.50 to $5.50, but it\u2019s still wild that he\u2019s rated ahead of players like Noah Anderson and Bailey Smith.<\/p>\n

I would be absolutely stunned if Dawson finishes on the podium.<\/p>\n

\n

Value<\/b><\/b><\/h2>\n

Max Holmes @ $101<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

Geelong should win their final four games, and based on their voting pattern this season, expect Holmes, Cameron and Smith to share the spoils.<\/p>\n

Holmes is a sneaky chance for a vote in the Cats\u2019 big win over North, which lifts him to seventh on our leaderboard.<\/p>\n

We have him polling 13 votes across Geelong\u2019s last nine games. If he picks up another 7 or 8 in the run home, he\u2019s a genuine podium smoky at a massive price.<\/p>\n

\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/b><\/h3>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player\u2019s impact on the game.<\/span><\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Although Brownlow favourite Nick Daicos has kicked away from the chasing pack, we have a $21 chance as our best bet after Round 20. Pos Player Club Votes Odds 1 N. Daicos Coll 26.75 $1.75 2 N.Anderson GC 21.25 $7.00 3 C.Serong Fre 20.75 $21 4 M.Rowell GC 20.00 $21 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":19411,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19780","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19780"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19780\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19786,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19780\/revisions\/19786"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}