{"id":19793,"date":"2025-08-05T02:34:18","date_gmt":"2025-08-05T02:34:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=19793"},"modified":"2025-08-05T02:34:18","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T02:34:18","slug":"afl-brownlow-predictor-round-21-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/afl-brownlow-predictor-round-21-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL Brownlow Predictor – Round 21 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

It looked like Nick Daicos had an insurmountable lead after Round 20, but the contenders have come hard for him in Round 21, in particular a Goal Coast duo.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Pos<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n

\n

Player<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n

\n

Club<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n

\n

Votes<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n

\n

Odds<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

N. Daicos<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Coll<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

26.75<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$1.95<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

N.Anderson<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

GC<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

24.00<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$4.80<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

M.Rowell<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

GC<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.25<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$14<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

B.Smith<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Geel<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

21.00<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$17<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

C.Serong<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Fre<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20.75<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$51<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

M.Holmes<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Gee<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20.00<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$81<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Z.Butters<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

PA<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.75<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$151<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

J.Dawson<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Adel<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

18.75<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

$6.00<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/b><\/b><\/h2>\n

Noah Anderson @ $4.80<\/b><\/a><\/b><\/p>\n

Last week, Rowell was our best bet at $21, with his odds crunched into $13 after Round 21. But following a monstrous performance, it\u2019s Noah Anderson who gets the nod this week at $5.<\/p>\n

Whether it\u2019s Rowell or Anderson, the Suns have a game in hand, and with both players currently on the podium, this angle becomes more relevant each week.<\/p>\n

Anderson is just one best-on-ground performance behind Daicos, who faces Hawthorn this week. It\u2019s a side he has historically struggled against, so this round presents another big opportunity for one of the Suns midfielders to close the gap.<\/p>\n

\n

Lay<\/b><\/b><\/h2>\n

Jordan Dawson @ $6.00<\/b><\/a><\/b><\/p>\n

If you\u2019ve read this article before, you\u2019ll know there\u2019s a consistent theme \u2014 laying Jordan Dawson.<\/p>\n

He was solid in Adelaide\u2019s win over the Hawks but managed just 21 disposals. It wasn\u2019t a dominant display.<\/p>\n

Dawson does re-enter the top eight on the leaderboard, but at $6, he still looks well off the pace.<\/p>\n

\n

Value<\/b><\/b><\/h2>\n

Max Holmes @ $81<\/b><\/a><\/b><\/p>\n

He\u2019s flying. Another best-on-ground performance in Geelong\u2019s demolition of Port Adelaide has pushed Max Holmes to outright sixth on our leaderboard.<\/p>\n

Geelong now face Essendon in Round 22. Just eight weeks ago, Holmes was best on ground against the Bombers with 36 disposals and a goal. In Round 24, they play Richmond, a side he also dominated with 36 and a goal.<\/p>\n

The polling history is a concern, which explains the price, but the Geelong speedster has a very favourable run home.<\/p>\n

\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/b><\/h3>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g., 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player\u2019s impact on the game.<\/span><\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts, and the broader football community.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It looked like Nick Daicos had an insurmountable lead after Round 20, but the contenders have come hard for him in Round 21, in particular a Goal Coast duo. Pos Player Club Votes Odds 1 N. Daicos Coll 26.75 $1.95 2 N.Anderson GC 24.00 $4.80 3 M.Rowell GC 22.25 $14 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":19411,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19793","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19793"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19793\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19799,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19793\/revisions\/19799"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19793"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19793"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19793"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}