{"id":21881,"date":"2026-04-28T10:00:58","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T00:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=21881"},"modified":"2026-04-28T10:02:34","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T00:02:34","slug":"afl-brownlow-predictor-daicos-remains-clear-but-51-hawk-circles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/afl-brownlow-predictor-daicos-remains-clear-but-51-hawk-circles\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL Brownlow Predictor – Daicos Remains Clear but $51 Hawk Circles"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nick Daicos continues to build on his incredible season, adding more votes on the weekend. But we have a new contender as our best bet at double-figure odds, while a $51 shot has surged into the top three of our leaderboard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/th>\nName<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nVotes<\/th>\nOdds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nNick Daicos<\/td>\nColl<\/td>\n14.95<\/td>\n$2.85<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nZak Butters<\/td>\nPA<\/td>\n12.11<\/td>\n$13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nJai Newcombe<\/td>\nHaw<\/td>\n11.74<\/td>\n$51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nMarcus Bontempelli<\/td>\nWB<\/td>\n9.76<\/td>\n$6.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nBailey Smith<\/td>\nGee<\/td>\n9.69<\/td>\n$6.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nHarry Sheezel<\/td>\nNM<\/td>\n9.62<\/td>\n$26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nJason Horne-Francis<\/td>\nPA<\/td>\n9.11<\/td>\n$51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nChristian Petracca<\/td>\nGWS<\/td>\n8.17<\/td>\n$10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/h2>\n

Zak Butters @ $13<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Are Port Adelaide better than first thought? Looking at their next month, I\u2019m keen to take Zak Butters at this price over Nick Daicos.<\/p>\n

The Power face the Crows in the Showdown next week, with some real concerns around Adelaide, especially through the midfield. They then host a depleted Western Bulldogs side, travel to face the Suns, and return home to take on Carlton before the bye.<\/p>\n

If Port win three of those four, Butters becomes a genuine contender heading into the bye rounds. The concern for Daicos is Collingwood\u2019s upcoming stretch against Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney.<\/p>\n

Lay<\/h2>\n

Marcus Bontempelli @ $6.00<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

An incredible performance by Bontempelli in the Bulldogs loss to the Swans, but it may only translate to one vote, maybe two at best.<\/p>\n

With Aaron Naughton unlikely for Round 8 and the Bulldogs battling injuries, their depth will be tested. In these conditions, it\u2019s hard to see Bontempelli polling enough votes in losses to stay competitive.<\/p>\n

Value Bet<\/h2>\n

Jai Newcombe @ $51<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

He\u2019s firmly in the mix now and still flying under the radar.<\/p>\n

Newcombe has at least three best-on-ground performances locked in already. He had 31 and a goal against Sydney, 28 and a goal with 14 clearances against the Bulldogs, and followed it up with 30 disposals and 20 contested touches against Gold Coast.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s a proven poller, outperforming projections in each of the past three seasons. At this price, he\u2019s impossible to ignore.<\/p>\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/h2>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness. The traditional 3-2-1 method forces clear distinctions between players whose performances may be nearly identical. Our system allows decimal-based scoring such as 2.5, 1.5 and 0.5, giving a more nuanced reflection of impact.<\/p>\n

This approach still totals six votes per game but offers greater flexibility. It reduces arbitrary decisions and captures subtle differences more effectively, leading to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better reflects how games are judged.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nick Daicos continues to build on his incredible season, adding more votes on the weekend. But we have a new contender as our best bet at double-figure odds, while a $51 shot has surged into the top three of our leaderboard. Rank Name Team Votes Odds 1 Nick Daicos Coll […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":21689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21881","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21881"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21881\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21884,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21881\/revisions\/21884"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21881"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21881"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21881"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}