{"id":22098,"date":"2026-07-14T09:09:34","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T23:09:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=22098"},"modified":"2026-07-14T09:09:34","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T23:09:34","slug":"brownlow-predictor-is-daicos-a-lay-with-six-rounds-to-go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/brownlow-predictor-is-daicos-a-lay-with-six-rounds-to-go\/","title":{"rendered":"Brownlow Predictor – Is Daicos a Lay With Six Rounds to Go?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As of Round 18 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 30.65 projected votes, priced at $1.60 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 24.26 votes at $34, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 23.68 votes at $10. Our best bet is Cripps at $34, with the value play being Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera at $51.<\/p>\n

Nick Daicos is the red-hot favourite after another strong performance, but can we take the $1.60 as our best bet after Round 18?<\/p>\n

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 18<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/th>\nName<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nVotes<\/th>\nOdds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nNick Daicos<\/td>\nColl<\/td>\n30.65<\/td>\n$1.60<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nPatrick Cripps<\/td>\nCar<\/td>\n24.26<\/td>\n$34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nMarcus Bontempelli<\/td>\nWB<\/td>\n23.68<\/td>\n$10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nJai Newcombe<\/td>\nHaw<\/td>\n21.81<\/td>\n$41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nHarry Sheezel<\/td>\nNM<\/td>\n19.64<\/td>\n$81<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nZak Butters<\/td>\nPA<\/td>\n19.59<\/td>\nN\/A<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nIsaac Heeney<\/td>\nSyd<\/td>\n19.40<\/td>\n$13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nJordan Dawson<\/td>\nAde<\/td>\n19.16<\/td>\n$13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/h2>\n

Patrick Cripps<\/h3>\n

Could this be an extraordinary case of deja vu for Nick Daicos? It was 2023, Round 18 was complete and Daicos was a $1.60 favourite to win the Brownlow Medal. He played two more games without polling a vote, before injury struck resulting in him missing the rest of the home and away season.<\/p>\n

I’m not saying this will happen again, but $1.60 is incredibly short with six games remaining, and with the work being done to Daicos during the game on the weekend, I can’t guarantee he’s home.<\/p>\n

Cripps won’t poll in their loss to Carlton, but we still have the Blues’ skipper in second place on our leaderboard. It’s a huge clash this weekend with the Pies which could be Brownlow defining. A Blues win could see Collingwood potentially win just one game in the last six, which gives the field a chance of making late ground.<\/p>\n

Back Patrick Cripps @ $34 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Lay<\/h2>\n

Luke Jackson<\/h3>\n

Luke Jackson is the sixth line of betting, but there are so many indicators that suggest the big man won’t even finish inside the top-ten on Brownlow Night.<\/p>\n

Firstly, he’s a ruckman, and yes, he did poll well last year, but not at a level where he’s a genuine Brownlow contender.<\/p>\n

He’s also in a team which is absolutely stacked with players that can poll on any given night. Our leaderboard had five Dockers inside the top-40, with four players on 10+ votes.<\/p>\n

We didn’t have Jackson in the votes in Round 18, and as a result he’s dropped outside our top-15 on 14.76 votes.<\/p>\n

Back Luke Jackson @ $18 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Value Bet<\/h2>\n

Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera<\/h3>\n

The Saints have had a nice run of form winning three of their last four games, and Wanganeen-Milera has been flying.<\/p>\n

We saw the exact same thing this time last season where the Saint stormed into Brownlow calculations, finishing equal ninth on 23 votes. We have Wanganeen-Milera polling around 8.25 votes in his last five games, and the Saints have a decent stretch ahead which gives him plenty more opportunities.<\/p>\n

They get a wounded Cats on Thursday night, along with North Melbourne, Gold Coast and Richmond in their run home. Currently in 12th place on 16.29 votes, I’d be shocked if he didn’t finish inside the top-eight from here.<\/p>\n

Back Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera @ $51 with betr <\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/h2>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.<\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As of Round 18 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 30.65 projected votes, priced at $1.60 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 24.26 votes at $34, while Marcus Bontempelli is third on 23.68 votes at $10. Our best bet is Cripps at $34, with the value […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":21689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22098","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22098"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22098\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22099,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22098\/revisions\/22099"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22098"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22098"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22098"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}