{"id":22283,"date":"2026-08-25T09:09:51","date_gmt":"2026-08-24T23:09:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb-auae-prd-ext-blog-01.azurewebsites.net\/?p=22283"},"modified":"2026-08-25T09:25:51","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T23:25:51","slug":"brownlow-predictor-smith-the-smoky-as-daicos-heads-in-at-1-01","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/afl-brownlow-predictor\/brownlow-predictor-smith-the-smoky-as-daicos-heads-in-at-1-01\/","title":{"rendered":"Brownlow Predictor – Smith the Smoky as Daicos Heads in at $1.01"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As of Round 24 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 41.75 projected votes, priced at $1.01 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 33.24 votes at $67, while Bailey Smith is our best bet at $51, with the Geelong Cat recording 30+ disposals in wins on 11 occasions this season, the exact same number as Daicos.<\/p>\n

Nick Daicos has had 30+ disposals in 11 wins this season for Collingwood and enters Brownlow Night as the $1.01 favourite, but there’s another player who has achieved the exact same thing this season who is a serious Brownlow smoky.<\/p>\n

Brownlow Leaderboard – Round 24<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rank<\/th>\nName<\/th>\nTeam<\/th>\nVotes<\/th>\nOdds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>\nNick Daicos<\/td>\nColl<\/td>\n41.75<\/td>\n$1.01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nPatrick Cripps<\/td>\nCar<\/td>\n33.24<\/td>\n$67<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nMarcus Bontempelli<\/td>\nWB<\/td>\n29.36<\/td>\n$41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nBailey Smith<\/td>\nGee<\/td>\n28.66<\/td>\n$51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nJai Newcombe<\/td>\nHaw<\/td>\n27.35<\/td>\n$101<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nMax Gawn<\/td>\nMel<\/td>\n24.66<\/td>\n$251<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nWill Ashcroft<\/td>\nBL<\/td>\n24.44<\/td>\n$81<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nJordan Dawson<\/td>\nAde<\/td>\n23.89<\/td>\n$81<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Best Bet<\/h2>\n

Bailey Smith<\/h3>\n

Although I’ve got Bailey Smith listed fourth on my leaderboard, I think he has the most upside from this leaderboard, and that I’ve potentially been harsh on the Cat.<\/p>\n

We have Daicos potentially polling in 20 games this season, but Bailey Smith isn’t far off from that with the ability to poll in 18 games, the second highest of all players in the pool.<\/p>\n

He will poll three votes in the last round with 40 disposals and three goals against the Tigers, with Smith now recording 30+ disposals in wins on 11 occasions this season, the exact same number as Daicos.<\/p>\n

Back Bailey Smith @ $51 with betr<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Lay<\/h2>\n

Marcus Bontempelli<\/h3>\n

The back-end of Ed Richards’ season will likely hurt Bontempelli, and although he should be in that top-five picture, I can see both Cripps and Smith finishing above him.<\/p>\n

It was another outstanding performance by Bontempelli in the Western Bulldogs’ upset win over Melbourne, but he played shotgun to Ed Richards who will likely be taking the maximum votes once again.<\/p>\n

Richards might be the reason Bont will once again miss out on a Brownlow. From Round 18 onwards, we have Bont polling 8.75 votes with Richards polling 11 votes over this stretch.<\/p>\n

Back Marcus Bontempelli @ $41 with betr<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Value Bet<\/h2>\n

Izak Rankine<\/h3>\n

I still think Max Gawn is great value per the Round 23 article and had another strong performance in Round 24, but Izak Rankine could be the form player of the competition right now.<\/p>\n

We have Rankine polling 17.25 votes from the last eight rounds, moving into ninth on our leaderboard just behind his teammate Jordan Dawson, finishing the season on 23.28 votes.<\/p>\n

Rankine only polled 15 votes last season but that was in line with what was projected. It will be interesting to see how he performs in his second season under the umpires’ nose in the middle.<\/p>\n

Back Izak Rankine @ $251 with betr<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Voting System – Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach<\/h2>\n

We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player’s impact on the game.<\/p>\n

This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As of Round 24 2026, Nick Daicos leads the Brownlow Medal race with 41.75 projected votes, priced at $1.01 to win. Patrick Cripps sits second on 33.24 votes at $67, while Bailey Smith is our best bet at $51, with the Geelong Cat recording 30+ disposals in wins on 11 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":21689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1238],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl-brownlow-predictor"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22283"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22283\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22294,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22283\/revisions\/22294"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prdextblog01.bluebet.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}