Another big game by Nick Daicos in Collingwood's loss on Monday keeps the Magpie on top, but the leaderboard has tightened up once again after some big Round 13 performances.
Brownlow Leaderboard - Round 13
| Rank | Name | Team | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Daicos | Coll | 20.82 | $4.00 |
| 2 | Patrick Cripps | Car | 18.11 | $41 |
| 3 | Marcus Bontempelli | WB | 17.89 | $4.50 |
| 4 | Bailey Smith | Gee | 17.81 | $4.50 |
| 5 | Isaac Heeney | Syd | 15.97 | $8.00 |
| 6 | Jai Newcombe | Haw | 15.55 | $41 |
| 7 | Zak Butters | PA | 14.83 | $17 |
| 8 | Christian Petracca | GC | 13.96 | $15 |
Best Bet
Nick Daicos
I know Collingwood has the bye, but Daicos is the clear standout this year in terms of his weekly output, and I'm surprised he's still at this price.
Despite the Pies losing to Melbourne on King's Birthday, Daicos still had 35 disposals and two goals, which likely gets him the two votes behind Pickett.
Collingwood have only won one of their last six games, but after the bye their draw opens right up. Port Adelaide, Richmond, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Carlton await. A Brownlow-defining five weeks for Daicos.
Back Nick Daicos @ $4.00 with betr
Lay
Christian Petracca
Gold Coast's fixture is a complete nightmare for the remainder of the season, and the way they're playing it's hard to see them split their remaining games, especially in the next three weeks where they head to Geelong, host the Hawks and then head to Perth to take on the ladder-leading Dockers.
Petracca won't poll in their loss to Brisbane, and has still played reasonably well of late, but with Rowell back in the mix it's hard to see the former Demon being the primary poller in their wins going forward.
Between their fixture and the midfield mix, Petracca cannot win it from here.
Back Christian Petracca @ $15 with betr
Value Bet
Harley Reid
Obviously Cripps and Newcombe are both outstanding value at $41, but as they both have the bye in Round 14, I've opted to find Harley Reid again with the opportunity for him to be crunched in this time next week.
Reid is in 13th place on our leaderboard, but a big game against North Melbourne could see the former number one pick move into the top-eight. When the Eagles played the Kangaroos earlier in the year, Reid had 21 disposals and two goals in their win, in which we have him as favourite to be awarded the three votes in that game.
In his two seasons so far, Reid has polled close to 30% above projection, albeit with a small sample size, so if he continues to play at this level he won't go unnoticed.
Back Harley Reid @ $151 with betr
The Voting System - Why We Use a Weighted Average Approach
We use a weighted average system for Brownlow voting to improve accuracy and fairness in assessing player performances. The traditional 3-2-1 method limits vote allocations to whole numbers, often forcing a clear distinction between players whose performances may have been nearly identical. By contrast, our weighted system allows for decimal-based scoring (e.g. 2.5, 1.5, 0.5), providing a more nuanced reflection of each player's impact on the game.
This approach maintains the same total vote count per game (six votes) but offers greater flexibility in how those votes are distributed. As a result, it reduces arbitrary decision-making and captures subtle performance differences more effectively. Ultimately, this leads to more precise predictions and a leaderboard that better mirrors how games are perceived by fans, analysts and the broader football community.
