Our best bet for Friday's AFL Wildcard clash between the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood Magpies is the Under 169.5 Total Points / Dale 25+ Disposals / Frampton 4+ Marks / Allan 15+ Disposals Same Game Multi at $4.20, with the Bulldogs featuring in the lowest scoring games of any team from Round 15 onwards and Bailey Dale averaging 29.2 disposals over his last 13 games.
The first wildcard game in AFL history on Friday night between the Bulldogs and Magpies. Who will advance to the top-eight?
Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Magpies
The Dogs and Pies finished eighth and ninth respectively, and that's reflected in the market at $1.90 apiece.
Although it might be tough to find the winner, I do expect this contest to be a grind, with the total points looking slightly high for an elimination final.
Leg 1 - Under 169.5 Total Points
With this being an elimination final, I think we'll see an extremely defensive grind between the two teams.
Although the Bulldogs game went overs last week, this was against a Melbourne lineup that had featured in the highest scoring games over the past eight weeks.
The Western Bulldogs have featured in the most unders games of any team this season, with just a 30% overs coverage rate, and from Round 15 the Dogs have played in the lowest scoring games in the competition, with an average of just 155.3 total points.
Although they've only played three games at the MCG since 2019, all three went under the total points, and I expect a similar result once again.
Leg 2 - Bailey Dale 25+ Disposals
Returned just last week and made a huge difference for the Bulldogs, and from Round 6 onwards Bailey Dale has played extremely well.
Dale averages 29.2 disposals from this 13-game stretch, hitting 25+ disposals in 12 of those.
When they played Collingwood in Round 12, Dale finished with 27 disposals, and in his last five games against the Pies he's hit 25+.
Leg 3 - Billy Frampton 4+ Marks
The Bulldogs concede the most marks to defenders in the competition this season, so expect Billy Frampton to take a few marks as both an interceptor and a link-man switching in back half.
Frampton averages 5.3 marks per game from Round 5 onwards, hitting 4+ marks in 15 of the last 19 games.
He had four against the Bulldogs in Round 12 and should see even more this time around.
Leg 4 - Ed Allan 15+ Disposals
Full-time midfielder since Round 13 in a defensive role for the Magpies, and will be even more important on Friday night with no Scott Pendlebury.
Since entering the Collingwood midfield on a full-time basis, Allan is averaging 19.8 disposals while hitting 15+ disposals on all 11 occasions.
15+ is a nice kicker for the Same Game Multi, but even 20+ disposals for Allan is worth considering, hitting this mark in his last three games.
Same Game Multi
Under 169.5 Total Points / Dale 25+ Disposals / Frampton 4+ Marks / Allan 15+ Disposals = $4.20
